Recent northerly winds and a cool air intrusion following a prolonged heatwave have shifted Ankara's overnight minimum temperature forecasts for August 30 toward 13–15°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in low temperatures due to uncertainties in cloud cover timing, wind speed, and radiative cooling efficiency under clearer skies after showers. Clear conditions promote stronger nocturnal cooling via longwave radiation loss at the surface, while residual moisture or light winds could limit drops below 13°C; Ankara's ~900 m elevation and continental setting amplify these diurnal ranges. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution among these leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 30?
9°C or below 67%
19°C or higher 57%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
67%
10°C
49%
11°C
49%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
49%
15°C
49%
16°C
2%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C or higher
57%
9°C or below 67%
19°C or higher 57%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
67%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$5 Vol.
25%
18°C
$5 Vol.
25%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly winds and a cool air intrusion following a prolonged heatwave have shifted Ankara's overnight minimum temperature forecasts for August 30 toward 13–15°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in low temperatures due to uncertainties in cloud cover timing, wind speed, and radiative cooling efficiency under clearer skies after showers. Clear conditions promote stronger nocturnal cooling via longwave radiation loss at the surface, while residual moisture or light winds could limit drops below 13°C; Ankara's ~900 m elevation and continental setting amplify these diurnal ranges. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution among these leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly winds and a cool air intrusion following a prolonged heatwave have shifted Ankara's overnight minimum temperature forecasts for August 30 toward 13–15°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in low temperatures due to uncertainties in cloud cover timing, wind speed, and radiative cooling efficiency under clearer skies after showers. Clear conditions promote stronger nocturnal cooling via longwave radiation loss at the surface, while residual moisture or light winds could limit drops below 13°C; Ankara's ~900 m elevation and continental setting amplify these diurnal ranges. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution among these leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northerly winds and a cool air intrusion following a prolonged heatwave have shifted Ankara's overnight minimum temperature forecasts for August 30 toward 13–15°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in low temperatures due to uncertainties in cloud cover timing, wind speed, and radiative cooling efficiency under clearer skies after showers. Clear conditions promote stronger nocturnal cooling via longwave radiation loss at the surface, while residual moisture or light winds could limit drops below 13°C; Ankara's ~900 m elevation and continental setting amplify these diurnal ranges. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution among these leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions