Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's August 30 nighttime minimum will likely fall in the 9–15°C range, driven by southerly winds advecting milder air and variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between the 15°C-or-higher and 5°C-or-below outcomes because short-range models still show spread in exact low temperatures depending on cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Clearer skies could enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range, while persistent clouds or stronger southerly flow would favor milder readings near or above 14°C; historical late-August climatology (typical lows near 12–14°C) provides limited guidance given current synoptic variability. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 30?
15°C or higher 96%
5°C or below 92%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
5°C or below
92%
6°C
49%
7°C
49%
8°C
50%
9°C
50%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
50%
13°C
50%
14°C
50%
15°C or higher
96%
15°C or higher 96%
5°C or below 92%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
6°C
$0 Vol.
49%
7°C
$0 Vol.
49%
8°C
$0 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
50%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
50%
13°C
$0 Vol.
50%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's August 30 nighttime minimum will likely fall in the 9–15°C range, driven by southerly winds advecting milder air and variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between the 15°C-or-higher and 5°C-or-below outcomes because short-range models still show spread in exact low temperatures depending on cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Clearer skies could enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range, while persistent clouds or stronger southerly flow would favor milder readings near or above 14°C; historical late-August climatology (typical lows near 12–14°C) provides limited guidance given current synoptic variability. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's August 30 nighttime minimum will likely fall in the 9–15°C range, driven by southerly winds advecting milder air and variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between the 15°C-or-higher and 5°C-or-below outcomes because short-range models still show spread in exact low temperatures depending on cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Clearer skies could enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range, while persistent clouds or stronger southerly flow would favor milder readings near or above 14°C; historical late-August climatology (typical lows near 12–14°C) provides limited guidance given current synoptic variability. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's August 30 nighttime minimum will likely fall in the 9–15°C range, driven by southerly winds advecting milder air and variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between the 15°C-or-higher and 5°C-or-below outcomes because short-range models still show spread in exact low temperatures depending on cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Clearer skies could enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range, while persistent clouds or stronger southerly flow would favor milder readings near or above 14°C; historical late-August climatology (typical lows near 12–14°C) provides limited guidance given current synoptic variability. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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