Recent mid-August polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a consistent lead for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4, 2026, Senate contest, with support in the mid-to-high 20s or low teens depending on the survey, ahead of incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL). The two-seat structure allows voters two choices, keeping competition focused on the second position where several names remain within the margin of error. Arraes’s edge stems from name recognition as a former federal deputy, PDT positioning, and coalition dynamics aligned with the Lula administration. Trader consensus reflects these trends through elevated implied probability for Arraes finishing first, while the tight field for remaining spots leaves room for shifts from undecided voters or late campaign momentum before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 14.2%
Mendonça Filho 4.2%
Mailson da Silva Neto <1%
$18,297 Vol.
$18,297 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
68%
Humberto Costa
14%
Mendonça Filho
4%
Mailson da Silva Neto
1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
1%
Gorett Bitu
1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
1%
Eduardo da Fonte
1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Marília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 14.2%
Mendonça Filho 4.2%
Mailson da Silva Neto <1%
$18,297 Vol.
$18,297 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$9,126 Vol.
68%
Humberto Costa
$4,873 Vol.
14%
Mendonça Filho
$981 Vol.
4%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$372 Vol.
1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$344 Vol.
1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$351 Vol.
1%
Gorett Bitu
$344 Vol.
1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$344 Vol.
1%
Eduardo da Fonte
$341 Vol.
1%
Samuel Timoteo
$382 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$368 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent mid-August polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a consistent lead for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4, 2026, Senate contest, with support in the mid-to-high 20s or low teens depending on the survey, ahead of incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL). The two-seat structure allows voters two choices, keeping competition focused on the second position where several names remain within the margin of error. Arraes’s edge stems from name recognition as a former federal deputy, PDT positioning, and coalition dynamics aligned with the Lula administration. Trader consensus reflects these trends through elevated implied probability for Arraes finishing first, while the tight field for remaining spots leaves room for shifts from undecided voters or late campaign momentum before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$18,297End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent mid-August polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a consistent lead for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4, 2026, Senate contest, with support in the mid-to-high 20s or low teens depending on the survey, ahead of incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL). The two-seat structure allows voters two choices, keeping competition focused on the second position where several names remain within the margin of error. Arraes’s edge stems from name recognition as a former federal deputy, PDT positioning, and coalition dynamics aligned with the Lula administration. Trader consensus reflects these trends through elevated implied probability for Arraes finishing first, while the tight field for remaining spots leaves room for shifts from undecided voters or late campaign momentum before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,297End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent mid-August polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a consistent lead for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4, 2026, Senate contest, with support in the mid-to-high 20s or low teens depending on the survey, ahead of incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL). The two-seat structure allows voters two choices, keeping competition focused on the second position where several names remain within the margin of error. Arraes’s edge stems from name recognition as a former federal deputy, PDT positioning, and coalition dynamics aligned with the Lula administration. Trader consensus reflects these trends through elevated implied probability for Arraes finishing first, while the tight field for remaining spots leaves room for shifts from undecided voters or late campaign momentum before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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