Persistent low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by a drought that began in May and produced record or near-record lows at multiple gauges by mid-August, continue to shape trader expectations for recovery. Budapest readings hovered near 57-66 cm in late August, well below the 93 cm low-water threshold, amid precipitation 40-50% below normal in key catchments and limited near-term rainfall forecasts. Minor rises from recent Alpine precipitation of 50-60 mm offer only partial relief and are not expected to restore seasonal norms quickly. Navigation restrictions, hydropower impacts, and exposed riverbeds underscore the severity, with historical patterns and current hydrology pointing to gradual autumn recovery as the dominant scenario priced by the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the Danube River return to normal levels?
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 37%
September 15 - 30, 2026 25%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 21.0%
September 1 - 14, 2026 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Before September 1, 2026
11%
September 1 - 14, 2026
11%
September 15 - 30, 2026
25%
October 1 - 31, 2026
37%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
21%
October 1 - 31, 2026 37%
September 15 - 30, 2026 25%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 21.0%
September 1 - 14, 2026 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Before September 1, 2026
$702 Vol.
11%
September 1 - 14, 2026
$1,201 Vol.
11%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$2,208 Vol.
25%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$1,902 Vol.
37%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
$1,633 Vol.
21%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by a drought that began in May and produced record or near-record lows at multiple gauges by mid-August, continue to shape trader expectations for recovery. Budapest readings hovered near 57-66 cm in late August, well below the 93 cm low-water threshold, amid precipitation 40-50% below normal in key catchments and limited near-term rainfall forecasts. Minor rises from recent Alpine precipitation of 50-60 mm offer only partial relief and are not expected to restore seasonal norms quickly. Navigation restrictions, hydropower impacts, and exposed riverbeds underscore the severity, with historical patterns and current hydrology pointing to gradual autumn recovery as the dominant scenario priced by the market.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
Volume
$7,645End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by a drought that began in May and produced record or near-record lows at multiple gauges by mid-August, continue to shape trader expectations for recovery. Budapest readings hovered near 57-66 cm in late August, well below the 93 cm low-water threshold, amid precipitation 40-50% below normal in key catchments and limited near-term rainfall forecasts. Minor rises from recent Alpine precipitation of 50-60 mm offer only partial relief and are not expected to restore seasonal norms quickly. Navigation restrictions, hydropower impacts, and exposed riverbeds underscore the severity, with historical patterns and current hydrology pointing to gradual autumn recovery as the dominant scenario priced by the market.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,645End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by a drought that began in May and produced record or near-record lows at multiple gauges by mid-August, continue to shape trader expectations for recovery. Budapest readings hovered near 57-66 cm in late August, well below the 93 cm low-water threshold, amid precipitation 40-50% below normal in key catchments and limited near-term rainfall forecasts. Minor rises from recent Alpine precipitation of 50-60 mm offer only partial relief and are not expected to restore seasonal norms quickly. Navigation restrictions, hydropower impacts, and exposed riverbeds underscore the severity, with historical patterns and current hydrology pointing to gradual autumn recovery as the dominant scenario priced by the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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