The Alagoas Senate race for first place remains tightly contested between Arthur Lira (PP) and incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB) after Alfredo Gaspar’s withdrawal to join Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential ticket shifted voter blocs and removed the prior polling leader. Recent surveys before the exit showed the three candidates statistically tied in the low-to-mid 30s to 40 percent range, and subsequent consolidation has left Lira and Renan as the clear frontrunners in a two-way dynamic that also features Marina JHC (PSDB) and several lower-polling names. Trader pricing reflects this polarization, with endorsements from national figures and state party structures now the main variables that could widen or narrow the gap before October 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Lira 45%
Renan 34%
Marina JHC 9.3%
Dr. Wanderley 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
45%
Renan
41%
Marina JHC
9%
Dr. Wanderley
3%
Alexandre Fleming
1%
Mariedson
<1%
Davi Davino Filho
<1%
Arthur Lira 45%
Renan 34%
Marina JHC 9.3%
Dr. Wanderley 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
$3,156 Vol.
45%
Renan
$3,164 Vol.
41%
Marina JHC
$341 Vol.
9%
Dr. Wanderley
$419 Vol.
3%
Alexandre Fleming
$348 Vol.
1%
Mariedson
$358 Vol.
<1%
Davi Davino Filho
$263 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for first place remains tightly contested between Arthur Lira (PP) and incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB) after Alfredo Gaspar’s withdrawal to join Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential ticket shifted voter blocs and removed the prior polling leader. Recent surveys before the exit showed the three candidates statistically tied in the low-to-mid 30s to 40 percent range, and subsequent consolidation has left Lira and Renan as the clear frontrunners in a two-way dynamic that also features Marina JHC (PSDB) and several lower-polling names. Trader pricing reflects this polarization, with endorsements from national figures and state party structures now the main variables that could widen or narrow the gap before October 2026.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$8,049End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for first place remains tightly contested between Arthur Lira (PP) and incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB) after Alfredo Gaspar’s withdrawal to join Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential ticket shifted voter blocs and removed the prior polling leader. Recent surveys before the exit showed the three candidates statistically tied in the low-to-mid 30s to 40 percent range, and subsequent consolidation has left Lira and Renan as the clear frontrunners in a two-way dynamic that also features Marina JHC (PSDB) and several lower-polling names. Trader pricing reflects this polarization, with endorsements from national figures and state party structures now the main variables that could widen or narrow the gap before October 2026.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,049End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas Senate race for first place remains tightly contested between Arthur Lira (PP) and incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB) after Alfredo Gaspar’s withdrawal to join Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential ticket shifted voter blocs and removed the prior polling leader. Recent surveys before the exit showed the three candidates statistically tied in the low-to-mid 30s to 40 percent range, and subsequent consolidation has left Lira and Renan as the clear frontrunners in a two-way dynamic that also features Marina JHC (PSDB) and several lower-polling names. Trader pricing reflects this polarization, with endorsements from national figures and state party structures now the main variables that could widen or narrow the gap before October 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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