Rui Costa leads trader consensus for first place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election because recent polling, including the early August Paraná Pesquisas survey, places the former governor and current presidential chief of staff comfortably ahead of fellow PT candidate and incumbent senator Jaques Wagner. Both PT figures benefit from the party’s strong state organization and alignment with President Lula’s coalition, while opposition names such as João Roma and Angelo Coronel trail significantly. The two-seat contest and PT’s combined first- and second-preference strength underpin the market’s view that Costa is the most likely individual frontrunner. Wagner’s lower odds reflect his solid but secondary standing in the same surveys, with limited movement from other registered candidates. No major new polling or campaign events have altered this positioning in recent days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 72%
Jaques Wagner 10.7%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Gregorio Gould <1%
$12,774 Vol.
$12,774 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
72%
Jaques Wagner
11%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Angelo Coronel
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 72%
Jaques Wagner 10.7%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Gregorio Gould <1%
$12,774 Vol.
$12,774 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$4,437 Vol.
72%
Jaques Wagner
$2,833 Vol.
11%
Carlos Sodré
$763 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$556 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Angelo Coronel
$452 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$899 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$730 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$729 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$746 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa leads trader consensus for first place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election because recent polling, including the early August Paraná Pesquisas survey, places the former governor and current presidential chief of staff comfortably ahead of fellow PT candidate and incumbent senator Jaques Wagner. Both PT figures benefit from the party’s strong state organization and alignment with President Lula’s coalition, while opposition names such as João Roma and Angelo Coronel trail significantly. The two-seat contest and PT’s combined first- and second-preference strength underpin the market’s view that Costa is the most likely individual frontrunner. Wagner’s lower odds reflect his solid but secondary standing in the same surveys, with limited movement from other registered candidates. No major new polling or campaign events have altered this positioning in recent days.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$12,774End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa leads trader consensus for first place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election because recent polling, including the early August Paraná Pesquisas survey, places the former governor and current presidential chief of staff comfortably ahead of fellow PT candidate and incumbent senator Jaques Wagner. Both PT figures benefit from the party’s strong state organization and alignment with President Lula’s coalition, while opposition names such as João Roma and Angelo Coronel trail significantly. The two-seat contest and PT’s combined first- and second-preference strength underpin the market’s view that Costa is the most likely individual frontrunner. Wagner’s lower odds reflect his solid but secondary standing in the same surveys, with limited movement from other registered candidates. No major new polling or campaign events have altered this positioning in recent days.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,774End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa leads trader consensus for first place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election because recent polling, including the early August Paraná Pesquisas survey, places the former governor and current presidential chief of staff comfortably ahead of fellow PT candidate and incumbent senator Jaques Wagner. Both PT figures benefit from the party’s strong state organization and alignment with President Lula’s coalition, while opposition names such as João Roma and Angelo Coronel trail significantly. The two-seat contest and PT’s combined first- and second-preference strength underpin the market’s view that Costa is the most likely individual frontrunner. Wagner’s lower odds reflect his solid but secondary standing in the same surveys, with limited movement from other registered candidates. No major new polling or campaign events have altered this positioning in recent days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions