Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Paraíba first-round presidential vote due to the incumbent president’s entrenched support in Brazil’s Northeast, where state-level polling from May 2026 showed him at 53% against single-digit or low-20s shares for rivals. Regional approval of his administration near 56% and limited penetration by challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro reinforce this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. The market’s implied probability exceeds 90%, yet outcomes could shift if late-campaign dynamics—including turnout among undecided voters, coordinated opposition messaging, or economic developments—alter preferences in this key Northeastern electorate before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 94.9%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Zema
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Lula 94.9%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,044 Vol.
95%
Edmilson Costa
$431 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$483 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$431 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
1%
Samara
$431 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$431 Vol.
1%
Zema
$431 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$431 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$493 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$452 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$431 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Paraíba first-round presidential vote due to the incumbent president’s entrenched support in Brazil’s Northeast, where state-level polling from May 2026 showed him at 53% against single-digit or low-20s shares for rivals. Regional approval of his administration near 56% and limited penetration by challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro reinforce this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. The market’s implied probability exceeds 90%, yet outcomes could shift if late-campaign dynamics—including turnout among undecided voters, coordinated opposition messaging, or economic developments—alter preferences in this key Northeastern electorate before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$9,352End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Paraíba first-round presidential vote due to the incumbent president’s entrenched support in Brazil’s Northeast, where state-level polling from May 2026 showed him at 53% against single-digit or low-20s shares for rivals. Regional approval of his administration near 56% and limited penetration by challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro reinforce this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. The market’s implied probability exceeds 90%, yet outcomes could shift if late-campaign dynamics—including turnout among undecided voters, coordinated opposition messaging, or economic developments—alter preferences in this key Northeastern electorate before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,352End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Paraíba first-round presidential vote due to the incumbent president’s entrenched support in Brazil’s Northeast, where state-level polling from May 2026 showed him at 53% against single-digit or low-20s shares for rivals. Regional approval of his administration near 56% and limited penetration by challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro reinforce this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. The market’s implied probability exceeds 90%, yet outcomes could shift if late-campaign dynamics—including turnout among undecided voters, coordinated opposition messaging, or economic developments—alter preferences in this key Northeastern electorate before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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