Lula's commanding position in Piauí reflects the state's consistent pattern of strong support for the incumbent Workers' Party in northeastern Brazil, driven by long-standing voter alignment with social welfare programs and regional economic priorities. National polling from mid-August 2026 shows Lula leading first-round intentions overall, though the gap with challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed in recent surveys. The official campaign period began on August 16, with the first round scheduled for October 4. Trader consensus assigns Lula a 95.7% implied probability of finishing first in the state. A major national surge by right-leaning candidates or an unexpected regional shift in turnout could still alter the outcome in this closely watched northeastern contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95.3%
Samara <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Samara
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95.3%
Samara <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,379 Vol.
95%
Samara
$272 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$368 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$408 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$342 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$436 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$352 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$437 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$433 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$342 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$342 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$342 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$432 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position in Piauí reflects the state's consistent pattern of strong support for the incumbent Workers' Party in northeastern Brazil, driven by long-standing voter alignment with social welfare programs and regional economic priorities. National polling from mid-August 2026 shows Lula leading first-round intentions overall, though the gap with challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed in recent surveys. The official campaign period began on August 16, with the first round scheduled for October 4. Trader consensus assigns Lula a 95.7% implied probability of finishing first in the state. A major national surge by right-leaning candidates or an unexpected regional shift in turnout could still alter the outcome in this closely watched northeastern contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$9,885End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position in Piauí reflects the state's consistent pattern of strong support for the incumbent Workers' Party in northeastern Brazil, driven by long-standing voter alignment with social welfare programs and regional economic priorities. National polling from mid-August 2026 shows Lula leading first-round intentions overall, though the gap with challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed in recent surveys. The official campaign period began on August 16, with the first round scheduled for October 4. Trader consensus assigns Lula a 95.7% implied probability of finishing first in the state. A major national surge by right-leaning candidates or an unexpected regional shift in turnout could still alter the outcome in this closely watched northeastern contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,885End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding position in Piauí reflects the state's consistent pattern of strong support for the incumbent Workers' Party in northeastern Brazil, driven by long-standing voter alignment with social welfare programs and regional economic priorities. National polling from mid-August 2026 shows Lula leading first-round intentions overall, though the gap with challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed in recent surveys. The official campaign period began on August 16, with the first round scheduled for October 4. Trader consensus assigns Lula a 95.7% implied probability of finishing first in the state. A major national surge by right-leaning candidates or an unexpected regional shift in turnout could still alter the outcome in this closely watched northeastern contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions