Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Rondônia’s October 4 first-round presidential vote due to the state’s conservative electorate and his strong performance in recent local polling, including a July Real Time Big Data survey showing him at 58% against much lower support for rivals. His Liberal Party (PL) candidacy, backed by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and family political legacy, aligns with Rondônia’s voter priorities on security and economic issues. National polls remain more competitive between Bolsonaro and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but state-level consolidation of right-leaning support has kept the implied probability near 97%. Late campaign developments, such as shifts in turnout, new alliances, or unexpected national events within the resolution window, represent the main variables that could narrow this margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.6%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$13,002 Vol.
$13,002 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Samara
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Lula
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.6%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$13,002 Vol.
$13,002 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,571 Vol.
98%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$451 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$381 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$491 Vol.
1%
Samara
$461 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$411 Vol.
<1%
Lula
$577 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$430 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$401 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$441 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$471 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$471 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$444 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Rondônia’s October 4 first-round presidential vote due to the state’s conservative electorate and his strong performance in recent local polling, including a July Real Time Big Data survey showing him at 58% against much lower support for rivals. His Liberal Party (PL) candidacy, backed by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and family political legacy, aligns with Rondônia’s voter priorities on security and economic issues. National polls remain more competitive between Bolsonaro and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but state-level consolidation of right-leaning support has kept the implied probability near 97%. Late campaign developments, such as shifts in turnout, new alliances, or unexpected national events within the resolution window, represent the main variables that could narrow this margin.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$13,002End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Rondônia’s October 4 first-round presidential vote due to the state’s conservative electorate and his strong performance in recent local polling, including a July Real Time Big Data survey showing him at 58% against much lower support for rivals. His Liberal Party (PL) candidacy, backed by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and family political legacy, aligns with Rondônia’s voter priorities on security and economic issues. National polls remain more competitive between Bolsonaro and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but state-level consolidation of right-leaning support has kept the implied probability near 97%. Late campaign developments, such as shifts in turnout, new alliances, or unexpected national events within the resolution window, represent the main variables that could narrow this margin.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,002End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Rondônia’s October 4 first-round presidential vote due to the state’s conservative electorate and his strong performance in recent local polling, including a July Real Time Big Data survey showing him at 58% against much lower support for rivals. His Liberal Party (PL) candidacy, backed by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and family political legacy, aligns with Rondônia’s voter priorities on security and economic issues. National polls remain more competitive between Bolsonaro and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but state-level consolidation of right-leaning support has kept the implied probability near 97%. Late campaign developments, such as shifts in turnout, new alliances, or unexpected national events within the resolution window, represent the main variables that could narrow this margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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