Trader consensus assigns just 3.7% implied probability to an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May 2026, remains regionally contained. As of mid-August, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported roughly 5,290 confirmed cases and 2,516 deaths, concentrated in Ituri province with limited cross-border spread into Uganda (20 cases, 2 deaths). Transmission requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids rather than airborne routes, and official CDC and WHO assessments rate global risk to the public as low amid active contact tracing and isolation measures. Historical data show Ebola outbreaks rarely exceed regional epidemics. A realistic shift could occur only if sustained community transmission reaches major travel hubs or if response capacity collapses in conflict-affected zones, though current surveillance shows no such trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$700,560 Vol.
$700,560 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$700,560 Vol.
$700,560 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns just 3.7% implied probability to an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May 2026, remains regionally contained. As of mid-August, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported roughly 5,290 confirmed cases and 2,516 deaths, concentrated in Ituri province with limited cross-border spread into Uganda (20 cases, 2 deaths). Transmission requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids rather than airborne routes, and official CDC and WHO assessments rate global risk to the public as low amid active contact tracing and isolation measures. Historical data show Ebola outbreaks rarely exceed regional epidemics. A realistic shift could occur only if sustained community transmission reaches major travel hubs or if response capacity collapses in conflict-affected zones, though current surveillance shows no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$700,560End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns just 3.7% implied probability to an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May 2026, remains regionally contained. As of mid-August, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported roughly 5,290 confirmed cases and 2,516 deaths, concentrated in Ituri province with limited cross-border spread into Uganda (20 cases, 2 deaths). Transmission requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids rather than airborne routes, and official CDC and WHO assessments rate global risk to the public as low amid active contact tracing and isolation measures. Historical data show Ebola outbreaks rarely exceed regional epidemics. A realistic shift could occur only if sustained community transmission reaches major travel hubs or if response capacity collapses in conflict-affected zones, though current surveillance shows no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$700,560End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns just 3.7% implied probability to an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May 2026, remains regionally contained. As of mid-August, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported roughly 5,290 confirmed cases and 2,516 deaths, concentrated in Ituri province with limited cross-border spread into Uganda (20 cases, 2 deaths). Transmission requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids rather than airborne routes, and official CDC and WHO assessments rate global risk to the public as low amid active contact tracing and isolation measures. Historical data show Ebola outbreaks rarely exceed regional epidemics. A realistic shift could occur only if sustained community transmission reaches major travel hubs or if response capacity collapses in conflict-affected zones, though current surveillance shows no such trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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