Forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF currently project Moscow highs of 17–20°C on September 18 amid variable cloudiness and a chance of light showers or thunderstorms, with afternoon peaks most often near 18–19°C under westerly flow. This consensus supports the market’s leading outcomes at 18°C (42% implied probability) and nearby bins, as traders weigh ensemble spread against the city’s mid-September climatological normal of roughly 16°C. Recent model updates have shown limited day-to-day shifts, keeping lower probabilities for 16°C or below and capping upside risk above 20°C. Updated runs and official briefings expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 18?
18°C 42%
17°C 30%
19°C 20%
20°C or higher 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C
7%
17°C
30%
18°C
42%
19°C
20%
20°C or higher
14%
18°C 42%
17°C 30%
19°C 20%
20°C or higher 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
10°C or below
$206 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$68 Vol.
3%
15°C
$11 Vol.
8%
16°C
$20 Vol.
7%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$86 Vol.
42%
19°C
$44 Vol.
20%
20°C or higher
$227 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF currently project Moscow highs of 17–20°C on September 18 amid variable cloudiness and a chance of light showers or thunderstorms, with afternoon peaks most often near 18–19°C under westerly flow. This consensus supports the market’s leading outcomes at 18°C (42% implied probability) and nearby bins, as traders weigh ensemble spread against the city’s mid-September climatological normal of roughly 16°C. Recent model updates have shown limited day-to-day shifts, keeping lower probabilities for 16°C or below and capping upside risk above 20°C. Updated runs and official briefings expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$755End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF currently project Moscow highs of 17–20°C on September 18 amid variable cloudiness and a chance of light showers or thunderstorms, with afternoon peaks most often near 18–19°C under westerly flow. This consensus supports the market’s leading outcomes at 18°C (42% implied probability) and nearby bins, as traders weigh ensemble spread against the city’s mid-September climatological normal of roughly 16°C. Recent model updates have shown limited day-to-day shifts, keeping lower probabilities for 16°C or below and capping upside risk above 20°C. Updated runs and official briefings expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$755End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF currently project Moscow highs of 17–20°C on September 18 amid variable cloudiness and a chance of light showers or thunderstorms, with afternoon peaks most often near 18–19°C under westerly flow. This consensus supports the market’s leading outcomes at 18°C (42% implied probability) and nearby bins, as traders weigh ensemble spread against the city’s mid-September climatological normal of roughly 16°C. Recent model updates have shown limited day-to-day shifts, keeping lower probabilities for 16°C or below and capping upside risk above 20°C. Updated runs and official briefings expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions