Recent short-range model runs from Brazil’s INMET and global ensembles indicate a highest temperature on August 25 centered near 21–23 °C in São Paulo, driven by southeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable winter air mass. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 21–23 °C outcomes, reflecting modest variability in forecast details such as exact cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and local station siting. Historical August averages near 22–24 °C provide context, yet recent ensemble trends have stayed slightly below the long-term baseline, sustaining trader focus on this narrow band rather than warmer or cooler tails. New INMET updates and morning observations on the 25th will refine the final recorded maximum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
22°C 31%
21°C 23%
23°C 19%
20°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
2%
19°C
3%
20°C
8%
21°C
23%
22°C
31%
23°C
19%
24°C
7%
25°C
4%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 31%
21°C 23%
23°C 19%
20°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
$23 Vol.
2%
19°C
$325 Vol.
3%
20°C
$203 Vol.
8%
21°C
$746 Vol.
23%
22°C
$628 Vol.
31%
23°C
$591 Vol.
19%
24°C
$308 Vol.
7%
25°C
$160 Vol.
4%
26°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$141 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$288 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model runs from Brazil’s INMET and global ensembles indicate a highest temperature on August 25 centered near 21–23 °C in São Paulo, driven by southeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable winter air mass. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 21–23 °C outcomes, reflecting modest variability in forecast details such as exact cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and local station siting. Historical August averages near 22–24 °C provide context, yet recent ensemble trends have stayed slightly below the long-term baseline, sustaining trader focus on this narrow band rather than warmer or cooler tails. New INMET updates and morning observations on the 25th will refine the final recorded maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,571End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model runs from Brazil’s INMET and global ensembles indicate a highest temperature on August 25 centered near 21–23 °C in São Paulo, driven by southeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable winter air mass. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 21–23 °C outcomes, reflecting modest variability in forecast details such as exact cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and local station siting. Historical August averages near 22–24 °C provide context, yet recent ensemble trends have stayed slightly below the long-term baseline, sustaining trader focus on this narrow band rather than warmer or cooler tails. New INMET updates and morning observations on the 25th will refine the final recorded maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,571End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model runs from Brazil’s INMET and global ensembles indicate a highest temperature on August 25 centered near 21–23 °C in São Paulo, driven by southeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable winter air mass. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 21–23 °C outcomes, reflecting modest variability in forecast details such as exact cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and local station siting. Historical August averages near 22–24 °C provide context, yet recent ensemble trends have stayed slightly below the long-term baseline, sustaining trader focus on this narrow band rather than warmer or cooler tails. New INMET updates and morning observations on the 25th will refine the final recorded maximum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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