Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, have driven rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel since late August 22, 2026, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency analyses. Official guidance shows the system reaching major typhoon strength with 10-minute sustained winds near 90–95 knots and central pressures around 940–955 hPa, aligning with the JMA “very strong typhoon” threshold. Model consensus favors a peak in this range before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent movement into cooler waters and increasing shear limit further growth, reducing the likelihood of violent typhoon criteria above 105 knots. Traders appear to weigh these environmental constraints against recent intensification rates when assigning the 85.5% implied probability to very strong typhoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 86%
Violent Typhoon 14%
Typhoon 1.6%
Tropical Storm <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
<1%
Typhoon
2%
Very Strong Typhoon
86%
Violent Typhoon
14%
Very Strong Typhoon 86%
Violent Typhoon 14%
Typhoon 1.6%
Tropical Storm <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$663 Vol.
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$606 Vol.
<1%
Typhoon
$1,436 Vol.
2%
Very Strong Typhoon
$1,496 Vol.
86%
Violent Typhoon
$3,195 Vol.
14%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, have driven rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel since late August 22, 2026, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency analyses. Official guidance shows the system reaching major typhoon strength with 10-minute sustained winds near 90–95 knots and central pressures around 940–955 hPa, aligning with the JMA “very strong typhoon” threshold. Model consensus favors a peak in this range before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent movement into cooler waters and increasing shear limit further growth, reducing the likelihood of violent typhoon criteria above 105 knots. Traders appear to weigh these environmental constraints against recent intensification rates when assigning the 85.5% implied probability to very strong typhoon.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$7,396End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, have driven rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel since late August 22, 2026, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency analyses. Official guidance shows the system reaching major typhoon strength with 10-minute sustained winds near 90–95 knots and central pressures around 940–955 hPa, aligning with the JMA “very strong typhoon” threshold. Model consensus favors a peak in this range before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent movement into cooler waters and increasing shear limit further growth, reducing the likelihood of violent typhoon criteria above 105 knots. Traders appear to weigh these environmental constraints against recent intensification rates when assigning the 85.5% implied probability to very strong typhoon.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$7,396End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, have driven rapid intensification of Typhoon Saudel since late August 22, 2026, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency analyses. Official guidance shows the system reaching major typhoon strength with 10-minute sustained winds near 90–95 knots and central pressures around 940–955 hPa, aligning with the JMA “very strong typhoon” threshold. Model consensus favors a peak in this range before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent movement into cooler waters and increasing shear limit further growth, reducing the likelihood of violent typhoon criteria above 105 knots. Traders appear to weigh these environmental constraints against recent intensification rates when assigning the 85.5% implied probability to very strong typhoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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