**Current forecast consensus from global models points to a minimum temperature near 11–13°C overnight into September 17 in Cape Town, driven by clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge that promotes radiative cooling while southeasterly winds (the “Cape Doctor”) provide mixing that limits deeper drops.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and detailed hourly runs, show overnight lows stabilizing around 11–12°C after sunset on the 16th, with the daily minimum likely occurring near dawn on the 17th before rapid warming under abundant sunshine. Strong, persistent SE winds of 25–40 km/h with higher gusts reduce the potential for extreme radiative cooling compared to calm conditions, while the cool Benguela Current maintains a marine influence that keeps baselines moderate for early spring. No significant weather systems or cloud cover are expected to alter this pattern before resolution. Trader positioning around the 10–12°C outcomes reflects this model agreement, tempered by typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C for coastal minimum temperatures and possible microclimate differences between official stations and urban areas. The elevated share on higher outcomes may capture residual model spread or alternative interpretations of “lowest temperature” measurement criteria. Upcoming model updates and the official South African Weather Service observation will be the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 17?
17°C or higher 93%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
9%
9°C
22%
10°C
22%
11°C
28%
12°C
23%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
2%
16°C
4%
17°C or higher
93%
17°C or higher 93%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
7°C or below
$80 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$422 Vol.
9%
9°C
$0 Vol.
22%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
4%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from global models points to a minimum temperature near 11–13°C overnight into September 17 in Cape Town, driven by clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge that promotes radiative cooling while southeasterly winds (the “Cape Doctor”) provide mixing that limits deeper drops.**
Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and detailed hourly runs, show overnight lows stabilizing around 11–12°C after sunset on the 16th, with the daily minimum likely occurring near dawn on the 17th before rapid warming under abundant sunshine. Strong, persistent SE winds of 25–40 km/h with higher gusts reduce the potential for extreme radiative cooling compared to calm conditions, while the cool Benguela Current maintains a marine influence that keeps baselines moderate for early spring.
No significant weather systems or cloud cover are expected to alter this pattern before resolution. Trader positioning around the 10–12°C outcomes reflects this model agreement, tempered by typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C for coastal minimum temperatures and possible microclimate differences between official stations and urban areas. The elevated share on higher outcomes may capture residual model spread or alternative interpretations of “lowest temperature” measurement criteria.
Upcoming model updates and the official South African Weather Service observation will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$502End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from global models points to a minimum temperature near 11–13°C overnight into September 17 in Cape Town, driven by clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge that promotes radiative cooling while southeasterly winds (the “Cape Doctor”) provide mixing that limits deeper drops.**
Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and detailed hourly runs, show overnight lows stabilizing around 11–12°C after sunset on the 16th, with the daily minimum likely occurring near dawn on the 17th before rapid warming under abundant sunshine. Strong, persistent SE winds of 25–40 km/h with higher gusts reduce the potential for extreme radiative cooling compared to calm conditions, while the cool Benguela Current maintains a marine influence that keeps baselines moderate for early spring.
No significant weather systems or cloud cover are expected to alter this pattern before resolution. Trader positioning around the 10–12°C outcomes reflects this model agreement, tempered by typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C for coastal minimum temperatures and possible microclimate differences between official stations and urban areas. The elevated share on higher outcomes may capture residual model spread or alternative interpretations of “lowest temperature” measurement criteria.
Upcoming model updates and the official South African Weather Service observation will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$502End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast consensus from global models points to a minimum temperature near 11–13°C overnight into September 17 in Cape Town, driven by clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge that promotes radiative cooling while southeasterly winds (the “Cape Doctor”) provide mixing that limits deeper drops.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and detailed hourly runs, show overnight lows stabilizing around 11–12°C after sunset on the 16th, with the daily minimum likely occurring near dawn on the 17th before rapid warming under abundant sunshine. Strong, persistent SE winds of 25–40 km/h with higher gusts reduce the potential for extreme radiative cooling compared to calm conditions, while the cool Benguela Current maintains a marine influence that keeps baselines moderate for early spring. No significant weather systems or cloud cover are expected to alter this pattern before resolution. Trader positioning around the 10–12°C outcomes reflects this model agreement, tempered by typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C for coastal minimum temperatures and possible microclimate differences between official stations and urban areas. The elevated share on higher outcomes may capture residual model spread or alternative interpretations of “lowest temperature” measurement criteria. Upcoming model updates and the official South African Weather Service observation will be the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions