Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the Western Cape, with clear skies and moderate southeasterly winds supporting a minimum temperature near 11–13°C on September 18. These conditions favor typical spring radiative cooling overnight without strong cold-air advection or anomalous warming, aligning with climatological September lows around 10–12°C at Cape Town. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched odds for sub-7°C and 16°C+ extremes alongside elevated probabilities for 9–14°C outcomes, underscores uncertainty in short-range model runs and potential for minor revisions as new data arrives. Official updates from monitoring agencies will likely refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 18?
6°C or below 89%
16°C or higher 89%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
6°C or below
89%
7°C
39%
8°C
29%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
25%
12°C
22%
13°C
21%
14°C
39%
15°C
8%
16°C or higher
89%
6°C or below 89%
16°C or higher 89%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
89%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
29%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the Western Cape, with clear skies and moderate southeasterly winds supporting a minimum temperature near 11–13°C on September 18. These conditions favor typical spring radiative cooling overnight without strong cold-air advection or anomalous warming, aligning with climatological September lows around 10–12°C at Cape Town. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched odds for sub-7°C and 16°C+ extremes alongside elevated probabilities for 9–14°C outcomes, underscores uncertainty in short-range model runs and potential for minor revisions as new data arrives. Official updates from monitoring agencies will likely refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the Western Cape, with clear skies and moderate southeasterly winds supporting a minimum temperature near 11–13°C on September 18. These conditions favor typical spring radiative cooling overnight without strong cold-air advection or anomalous warming, aligning with climatological September lows around 10–12°C at Cape Town. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched odds for sub-7°C and 16°C+ extremes alongside elevated probabilities for 9–14°C outcomes, underscores uncertainty in short-range model runs and potential for minor revisions as new data arrives. Official updates from monitoring agencies will likely refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the Western Cape, with clear skies and moderate southeasterly winds supporting a minimum temperature near 11–13°C on September 18. These conditions favor typical spring radiative cooling overnight without strong cold-air advection or anomalous warming, aligning with climatological September lows around 10–12°C at Cape Town. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched odds for sub-7°C and 16°C+ extremes alongside elevated probabilities for 9–14°C outcomes, underscores uncertainty in short-range model runs and potential for minor revisions as new data arrives. Official updates from monitoring agencies will likely refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions