**The closely matched 49% market odds for a Karachi minimum of 22°C or below versus 32°C or higher on September 18 reflect substantial short-term uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models over monsoon withdrawal timing and local cloud/rain impacts.** Coastal Karachi’s temperatures are strongly moderated by Arabian Sea sea-surface temperatures near 28°C, which sustain high humidity and limit diurnal ranges, while southwesterly flows can deliver additional moisture or allow clearer skies depending on the position of any lingering low-pressure features. Current ensemble guidance points to partly cloudy conditions with lows near 26–28°C, close to the September climatological average of roughly 27°C, but small shifts in steering patterns or overnight cloud cover could easily push the overnight minimum several degrees in either direction. Traders are therefore weighting the potential for model divergence ahead of the next forecast cycles rather than a single deterministic outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Karachi on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Karachi on September 18?
22°C or below 95%
32°C or higher 95%
27°C 44%
28°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
95%
23°C
38%
24°C
38%
25°C
38%
26°C
21%
27°C
24%
28°C
40%
29°C
8%
30°C
38%
31°C
39%
32°C or higher
95%
22°C or below 95%
32°C or higher 95%
27°C 44%
28°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
23°C
$0 Vol.
38%
24°C
$0 Vol.
38%
25°C
$0 Vol.
38%
26°C
$0 Vol.
21%
27°C
$10 Vol.
24%
28°C
$0 Vol.
40%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$0 Vol.
38%
31°C
$0 Vol.
39%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The closely matched 49% market odds for a Karachi minimum of 22°C or below versus 32°C or higher on September 18 reflect substantial short-term uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models over monsoon withdrawal timing and local cloud/rain impacts.**
Coastal Karachi’s temperatures are strongly moderated by Arabian Sea sea-surface temperatures near 28°C, which sustain high humidity and limit diurnal ranges, while southwesterly flows can deliver additional moisture or allow clearer skies depending on the position of any lingering low-pressure features. Current ensemble guidance points to partly cloudy conditions with lows near 26–28°C, close to the September climatological average of roughly 27°C, but small shifts in steering patterns or overnight cloud cover could easily push the overnight minimum several degrees in either direction. Traders are therefore weighting the potential for model divergence ahead of the next forecast cycles rather than a single deterministic outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The closely matched 49% market odds for a Karachi minimum of 22°C or below versus 32°C or higher on September 18 reflect substantial short-term uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models over monsoon withdrawal timing and local cloud/rain impacts.**
Coastal Karachi’s temperatures are strongly moderated by Arabian Sea sea-surface temperatures near 28°C, which sustain high humidity and limit diurnal ranges, while southwesterly flows can deliver additional moisture or allow clearer skies depending on the position of any lingering low-pressure features. Current ensemble guidance points to partly cloudy conditions with lows near 26–28°C, close to the September climatological average of roughly 27°C, but small shifts in steering patterns or overnight cloud cover could easily push the overnight minimum several degrees in either direction. Traders are therefore weighting the potential for model divergence ahead of the next forecast cycles rather than a single deterministic outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The closely matched 49% market odds for a Karachi minimum of 22°C or below versus 32°C or higher on September 18 reflect substantial short-term uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models over monsoon withdrawal timing and local cloud/rain impacts.** Coastal Karachi’s temperatures are strongly moderated by Arabian Sea sea-surface temperatures near 28°C, which sustain high humidity and limit diurnal ranges, while southwesterly flows can deliver additional moisture or allow clearer skies depending on the position of any lingering low-pressure features. Current ensemble guidance points to partly cloudy conditions with lows near 26–28°C, close to the September climatological average of roughly 27°C, but small shifts in steering patterns or overnight cloud cover could easily push the overnight minimum several degrees in either direction. Traders are therefore weighting the potential for model divergence ahead of the next forecast cycles rather than a single deterministic outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions