Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's September 17 minimum will likely fall between 9–13°C under mostly clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and moderate humidity, driven by radiative cooling overnight with limited cloud cover to trap heat. Trader sentiment remains evenly split between sub-3°C and 13°C+ outcomes at 42% each because model runs show sensitivity to small shifts in timing of any frontal passage or wind speed, which can alter the overnight low by several degrees. Mid-range bins around 8–10°C carry the next-highest implied probabilities as they align with current consensus guidance and historical early-autumn baselines for the region. Upcoming evening model updates from official agencies will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 17?
3°C or below 90%
13°C or higher 88%
6°C 40%
7°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
3°C or below
90%
4°C
2%
5°C
4%
6°C
21%
7°C
40%
8°C
23%
9°C
24%
10°C
22%
11°C
40%
12°C
18%
13°C or higher
88%
3°C or below 90%
13°C or higher 88%
6°C 40%
7°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
3°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
4°C
$0 Vol.
2%
5°C
$0 Vol.
4%
6°C
$8 Vol.
21%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
23%
9°C
$0 Vol.
24%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C or higher
$0 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's September 17 minimum will likely fall between 9–13°C under mostly clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and moderate humidity, driven by radiative cooling overnight with limited cloud cover to trap heat. Trader sentiment remains evenly split between sub-3°C and 13°C+ outcomes at 42% each because model runs show sensitivity to small shifts in timing of any frontal passage or wind speed, which can alter the overnight low by several degrees. Mid-range bins around 8–10°C carry the next-highest implied probabilities as they align with current consensus guidance and historical early-autumn baselines for the region. Upcoming evening model updates from official agencies will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's September 17 minimum will likely fall between 9–13°C under mostly clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and moderate humidity, driven by radiative cooling overnight with limited cloud cover to trap heat. Trader sentiment remains evenly split between sub-3°C and 13°C+ outcomes at 42% each because model runs show sensitivity to small shifts in timing of any frontal passage or wind speed, which can alter the overnight low by several degrees. Mid-range bins around 8–10°C carry the next-highest implied probabilities as they align with current consensus guidance and historical early-autumn baselines for the region. Upcoming evening model updates from official agencies will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Moscow's September 17 minimum will likely fall between 9–13°C under mostly clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and moderate humidity, driven by radiative cooling overnight with limited cloud cover to trap heat. Trader sentiment remains evenly split between sub-3°C and 13°C+ outcomes at 42% each because model runs show sensitivity to small shifts in timing of any frontal passage or wind speed, which can alter the overnight low by several degrees. Mid-range bins around 8–10°C carry the next-highest implied probabilities as they align with current consensus guidance and historical early-autumn baselines for the region. Upcoming evening model updates from official agencies will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions