Recent model consensus from agencies including MetService points to a southerly change and rain arriving overnight on September 16–17, producing a minimum temperature near 7–9°C under mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds. Official guidance lists a 7°C low for Wellington on the 17th, while ensemble spreads and timing of any clearing introduce uncertainty between 6–10°C. Historical September minima average near 8–9°C, and current atmospheric conditions—cooler maritime air advection rather than extreme radiational cooling—support the market’s tight clustering around 8–10°C implied probabilities near 49 percent. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will clarify whether the low falls closer to 7°C or holds above 8°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
6°C 92%
7°C 92%
11°C 92%
12°C 92%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
4°C or below
46%
5°C
50%
6°C
92%
7°C
92%
8°C
49%
9°C
49%
10°C
49%
11°C
92%
12°C
92%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
6°C 92%
7°C 92%
11°C 92%
12°C 92%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
46%
5°C
$0 Vol.
50%
6°C
$0 Vol.
92%
7°C
$0 Vol.
92%
8°C
$0 Vol.
49%
9°C
$0 Vol.
49%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
92%
12°C
$0 Vol.
92%
13°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including MetService points to a southerly change and rain arriving overnight on September 16–17, producing a minimum temperature near 7–9°C under mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds. Official guidance lists a 7°C low for Wellington on the 17th, while ensemble spreads and timing of any clearing introduce uncertainty between 6–10°C. Historical September minima average near 8–9°C, and current atmospheric conditions—cooler maritime air advection rather than extreme radiational cooling—support the market’s tight clustering around 8–10°C implied probabilities near 49 percent. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will clarify whether the low falls closer to 7°C or holds above 8°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$99End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including MetService points to a southerly change and rain arriving overnight on September 16–17, producing a minimum temperature near 7–9°C under mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds. Official guidance lists a 7°C low for Wellington on the 17th, while ensemble spreads and timing of any clearing introduce uncertainty between 6–10°C. Historical September minima average near 8–9°C, and current atmospheric conditions—cooler maritime air advection rather than extreme radiational cooling—support the market’s tight clustering around 8–10°C implied probabilities near 49 percent. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will clarify whether the low falls closer to 7°C or holds above 8°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$99End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies including MetService points to a southerly change and rain arriving overnight on September 16–17, producing a minimum temperature near 7–9°C under mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds. Official guidance lists a 7°C low for Wellington on the 17th, while ensemble spreads and timing of any clearing introduce uncertainty between 6–10°C. Historical September minima average near 8–9°C, and current atmospheric conditions—cooler maritime air advection rather than extreme radiational cooling—support the market’s tight clustering around 8–10°C implied probabilities near 49 percent. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will clarify whether the low falls closer to 7°C or holds above 8°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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