Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the lead in the Maranhão 2026 governor race at 55.5% implied probability, ahead of Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 41.5%, amid multiple declared candidates including Felipe Camarão (PT). Recent polls show Braide ahead in several stimulated first-round scenarios, often by double digits, supported by his São Luís base, party infrastructure, and name recognition after resigning as mayor. Brandão benefits from MDB alliances but faces headwinds from splits within the prior center-left governing coalition. Polling variance exceeding 15 points across firms, combined with an eight-candidate field and ongoing campaign events on issues like tourism, sustains uncertainty and keeps the contest competitive heading into the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Braide 56%
Orleans Brandão 42%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$60,497 Vol.
$60,497 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
56%
Orleans Brandão
42%
Felipe Camarão
1%
André Luís
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Eduardo Braide 56%
Orleans Brandão 42%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$60,497 Vol.
$60,497 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
$28,349 Vol.
56%
Orleans Brandão
$13,061 Vol.
42%
Felipe Camarão
$4,791 Vol.
1%
André Luís
$5,439 Vol.
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
$4,105 Vol.
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$4,753 Vol.
<1%
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the lead in the Maranhão 2026 governor race at 55.5% implied probability, ahead of Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 41.5%, amid multiple declared candidates including Felipe Camarão (PT). Recent polls show Braide ahead in several stimulated first-round scenarios, often by double digits, supported by his São Luís base, party infrastructure, and name recognition after resigning as mayor. Brandão benefits from MDB alliances but faces headwinds from splits within the prior center-left governing coalition. Polling variance exceeding 15 points across firms, combined with an eight-candidate field and ongoing campaign events on issues like tourism, sustains uncertainty and keeps the contest competitive heading into the October vote.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ET
Volume
$60,497End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the lead in the Maranhão 2026 governor race at 55.5% implied probability, ahead of Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 41.5%, amid multiple declared candidates including Felipe Camarão (PT). Recent polls show Braide ahead in several stimulated first-round scenarios, often by double digits, supported by his São Luís base, party infrastructure, and name recognition after resigning as mayor. Brandão benefits from MDB alliances but faces headwinds from splits within the prior center-left governing coalition. Polling variance exceeding 15 points across firms, combined with an eight-candidate field and ongoing campaign events on issues like tourism, sustains uncertainty and keeps the contest competitive heading into the October vote.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$60,497End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the lead in the Maranhão 2026 governor race at 55.5% implied probability, ahead of Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 41.5%, amid multiple declared candidates including Felipe Camarão (PT). Recent polls show Braide ahead in several stimulated first-round scenarios, often by double digits, supported by his São Luís base, party infrastructure, and name recognition after resigning as mayor. Brandão benefits from MDB alliances but faces headwinds from splits within the prior center-left governing coalition. Polling variance exceeding 15 points across firms, combined with an eight-candidate field and ongoing campaign events on issues like tourism, sustains uncertainty and keeps the contest competitive heading into the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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