Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Álvaro Dias leading the Paraná Senate race for one of two open seats, while Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml remain locked in a tight contest for second place amid elevated undecided and null responses. Trader pricing reflects this dynamic, with Barros and Dallagnol holding the highest implied probabilities for runner-up status. Key factors sustaining the closeness include fragmented voter preferences across ideological lines, ongoing legal questions around Dallagnol’s eligibility following his prior mandate cassation, and coalition arrangements linking Barros with Novo and other center-right groups. Scheduled candidate registrations, potential court rulings on challenges, and any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns before the October 4 vote could widen separations among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFilipe Barros 38%
Deltan Dallagnol 30%
Alexandre Curi 20%
Cristina Reis Graeml 7%
$13,305 Vol.
$13,305 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Filipe Barros
38%
Deltan Dallagnol
30%
Alexandre Curi
20%
Cristina Reis Graeml
7%
Gleisi
9%
Joaquim do MLB
2%
Marcelo Marcelino
2%
Dr. Rosinha
1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Filipe Barros 38%
Deltan Dallagnol 30%
Alexandre Curi 20%
Cristina Reis Graeml 7%
$13,305 Vol.
$13,305 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Filipe Barros
$7,803 Vol.
38%
Deltan Dallagnol
$2,899 Vol.
30%
Alexandre Curi
$1,166 Vol.
20%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$173 Vol.
7%
Gleisi
$487 Vol.
9%
Joaquim do MLB
$162 Vol.
2%
Marcelo Marcelino
$215 Vol.
2%
Dr. Rosinha
$137 Vol.
1%
Karen Guerreiro
$264 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Álvaro Dias leading the Paraná Senate race for one of two open seats, while Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml remain locked in a tight contest for second place amid elevated undecided and null responses. Trader pricing reflects this dynamic, with Barros and Dallagnol holding the highest implied probabilities for runner-up status. Key factors sustaining the closeness include fragmented voter preferences across ideological lines, ongoing legal questions around Dallagnol’s eligibility following his prior mandate cassation, and coalition arrangements linking Barros with Novo and other center-right groups. Scheduled candidate registrations, potential court rulings on challenges, and any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns before the October 4 vote could widen separations among the contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$13,305End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Álvaro Dias leading the Paraná Senate race for one of two open seats, while Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml remain locked in a tight contest for second place amid elevated undecided and null responses. Trader pricing reflects this dynamic, with Barros and Dallagnol holding the highest implied probabilities for runner-up status. Key factors sustaining the closeness include fragmented voter preferences across ideological lines, ongoing legal questions around Dallagnol’s eligibility following his prior mandate cassation, and coalition arrangements linking Barros with Novo and other center-right groups. Scheduled candidate registrations, potential court rulings on challenges, and any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns before the October 4 vote could widen separations among the contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,305End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Álvaro Dias leading the Paraná Senate race for one of two open seats, while Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml remain locked in a tight contest for second place amid elevated undecided and null responses. Trader pricing reflects this dynamic, with Barros and Dallagnol holding the highest implied probabilities for runner-up status. Key factors sustaining the closeness include fragmented voter preferences across ideological lines, ongoing legal questions around Dallagnol’s eligibility following his prior mandate cassation, and coalition arrangements linking Barros with Novo and other center-right groups. Scheduled candidate registrations, potential court rulings on challenges, and any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns before the October 4 vote could widen separations among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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