The crowded field of 13 candidates for Roraima’s two Senate seats on October 4, 2026, has produced a tight contest for second place, with trader consensus clustering Helio Bolsonaro near 32 percent, Chico Rodrigues around 28 percent, and Teresa Surita near 24 percent. Helio Bolsonaro’s recent transfer of electoral domicile and PL party backing, reinforced by national endorsements, provide name recognition that counters local incumbency advantages held by Rodrigues (PSB) and Surita (MDB). Vote fragmentation among additional PL and other contenders, combined with limited recent polling data, sustains uncertainty and keeps implied probabilities closely bunched. Any late consolidation of support, stronger regional campaign momentum, or shifts in voter turnout patterns could widen separation before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChico Rodrigues 32%
Helio Bolsonaro 31.7%
Teresa Surita 17%
Helena da Asatur 8.8%
$17,712 Vol.
$17,712 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Chico Rodrigues
32%
Helio Bolsonaro
32%
Teresa Surita
17%
Helena da Asatur
9%
Nicoletti
8%
Mario Rocha
5%
Regina Tio Ivo
4%
Hiperion de Oliveira
4%
Pastor Isamar
3%
Bartô Macuxi
1%
Rogério Miranda
1%
Márcio Junqueira
1%
Hilton Xavier
<1%
Chico Rodrigues 32%
Helio Bolsonaro 31.7%
Teresa Surita 17%
Helena da Asatur 8.8%
$17,712 Vol.
$17,712 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Chico Rodrigues
$2,814 Vol.
32%
Helio Bolsonaro
$5,852 Vol.
32%
Teresa Surita
$5,200 Vol.
17%
Helena da Asatur
$205 Vol.
9%
Nicoletti
$2,164 Vol.
8%
Mario Rocha
$159 Vol.
5%
Regina Tio Ivo
$181 Vol.
4%
Hiperion de Oliveira
$167 Vol.
4%
Pastor Isamar
$299 Vol.
3%
Bartô Macuxi
$179 Vol.
1%
Rogério Miranda
$175 Vol.
1%
Márcio Junqueira
$168 Vol.
1%
Hilton Xavier
$147 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The crowded field of 13 candidates for Roraima’s two Senate seats on October 4, 2026, has produced a tight contest for second place, with trader consensus clustering Helio Bolsonaro near 32 percent, Chico Rodrigues around 28 percent, and Teresa Surita near 24 percent. Helio Bolsonaro’s recent transfer of electoral domicile and PL party backing, reinforced by national endorsements, provide name recognition that counters local incumbency advantages held by Rodrigues (PSB) and Surita (MDB). Vote fragmentation among additional PL and other contenders, combined with limited recent polling data, sustains uncertainty and keeps implied probabilities closely bunched. Any late consolidation of support, stronger regional campaign momentum, or shifts in voter turnout patterns could widen separation before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Volume
$17,712End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The crowded field of 13 candidates for Roraima’s two Senate seats on October 4, 2026, has produced a tight contest for second place, with trader consensus clustering Helio Bolsonaro near 32 percent, Chico Rodrigues around 28 percent, and Teresa Surita near 24 percent. Helio Bolsonaro’s recent transfer of electoral domicile and PL party backing, reinforced by national endorsements, provide name recognition that counters local incumbency advantages held by Rodrigues (PSB) and Surita (MDB). Vote fragmentation among additional PL and other contenders, combined with limited recent polling data, sustains uncertainty and keeps implied probabilities closely bunched. Any late consolidation of support, stronger regional campaign momentum, or shifts in voter turnout patterns could widen separation before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,712End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The crowded field of 13 candidates for Roraima’s two Senate seats on October 4, 2026, has produced a tight contest for second place, with trader consensus clustering Helio Bolsonaro near 32 percent, Chico Rodrigues around 28 percent, and Teresa Surita near 24 percent. Helio Bolsonaro’s recent transfer of electoral domicile and PL party backing, reinforced by national endorsements, provide name recognition that counters local incumbency advantages held by Rodrigues (PSB) and Surita (MDB). Vote fragmentation among additional PL and other contenders, combined with limited recent polling data, sustains uncertainty and keeps implied probabilities closely bunched. Any late consolidation of support, stronger regional campaign momentum, or shifts in voter turnout patterns could widen separation before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions