Fábio Mitidieri, the PSD incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads the Sergipe governor race at 72.5% implied probability, well ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 17.5% and minor candidates below 1%. Recent August 2026 polls registered with the TSE, including those from CTAS and ECM Sergipe, show Mitidieri ahead in stimulated scenarios by 10–19 points, supported by incumbency, higher name recognition, and stronger performance in valid-vote simulations. Valmir maintains some support in spontaneous polling but trails consistently in head-to-head estimates. With the first round scheduled for October 4 and a possible runoff on October 25, trader consensus reflects Mitidieri’s structural advantages and poll momentum over the fragmented field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFábio 73%
Valmir de Francisquinho 20%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$10,848 Vol.
$10,848 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
73%
Valmir de Francisquinho
20%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Emanuel Cacho
1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 73%
Valmir de Francisquinho 20%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$10,848 Vol.
$10,848 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
$8,247 Vol.
73%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$941 Vol.
20%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$410 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$391 Vol.
1%
Dr. Helton
$455 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$404 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the PSD incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads the Sergipe governor race at 72.5% implied probability, well ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 17.5% and minor candidates below 1%. Recent August 2026 polls registered with the TSE, including those from CTAS and ECM Sergipe, show Mitidieri ahead in stimulated scenarios by 10–19 points, supported by incumbency, higher name recognition, and stronger performance in valid-vote simulations. Valmir maintains some support in spontaneous polling but trails consistently in head-to-head estimates. With the first round scheduled for October 4 and a possible runoff on October 25, trader consensus reflects Mitidieri’s structural advantages and poll momentum over the fragmented field.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$10,848End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the PSD incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads the Sergipe governor race at 72.5% implied probability, well ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 17.5% and minor candidates below 1%. Recent August 2026 polls registered with the TSE, including those from CTAS and ECM Sergipe, show Mitidieri ahead in stimulated scenarios by 10–19 points, supported by incumbency, higher name recognition, and stronger performance in valid-vote simulations. Valmir maintains some support in spontaneous polling but trails consistently in head-to-head estimates. With the first round scheduled for October 4 and a possible runoff on October 25, trader consensus reflects Mitidieri’s structural advantages and poll momentum over the fragmented field.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,848End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the PSD incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads the Sergipe governor race at 72.5% implied probability, well ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 17.5% and minor candidates below 1%. Recent August 2026 polls registered with the TSE, including those from CTAS and ECM Sergipe, show Mitidieri ahead in stimulated scenarios by 10–19 points, supported by incumbency, higher name recognition, and stronger performance in valid-vote simulations. Valmir maintains some support in spontaneous polling but trails consistently in head-to-head estimates. With the first round scheduled for October 4 and a possible runoff on October 25, trader consensus reflects Mitidieri’s structural advantages and poll momentum over the fragmented field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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