Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and Senate vice president, leads trader consensus for first place in Tocantins’s October 4, 2026, Senate race at 69.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent polling advantages and name recognition. Recent surveys, including July and early August 2026 releases from Paraná Pesquisas and VÓPE, place him ahead with roughly 31-38% support in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil). The two-seat contest features 13 candidates total, with lower-priced contenders facing structural barriers from fragmented opposition and incumbency effects. Trader pricing aligns with these polling patterns while remaining open to shifts from late campaign developments or turnout variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Gomes 70%
Alexandre Guimarães 12.9%
Gaguim 8.3%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$20,564 Vol.
$20,564 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Gomes
70%
Alexandre Guimarães
13%
Gaguim
8%
Paulo Mourão
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
<1%
Eli Borges
<1%
Nilton Santos
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Gomes 70%
Alexandre Guimarães 12.9%
Gaguim 8.3%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$20,564 Vol.
$20,564 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Gomes
$12,218 Vol.
70%
Alexandre Guimarães
$2,010 Vol.
13%
Gaguim
$694 Vol.
8%
Paulo Mourão
$538 Vol.
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$582 Vol.
<1%
Eli Borges
$523 Vol.
<1%
Nilton Santos
$629 Vol.
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$503 Vol.
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$593 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$515 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$593 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
$610 Vol.
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$554 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and Senate vice president, leads trader consensus for first place in Tocantins’s October 4, 2026, Senate race at 69.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent polling advantages and name recognition. Recent surveys, including July and early August 2026 releases from Paraná Pesquisas and VÓPE, place him ahead with roughly 31-38% support in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil). The two-seat contest features 13 candidates total, with lower-priced contenders facing structural barriers from fragmented opposition and incumbency effects. Trader pricing aligns with these polling patterns while remaining open to shifts from late campaign developments or turnout variations.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$20,564End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and Senate vice president, leads trader consensus for first place in Tocantins’s October 4, 2026, Senate race at 69.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent polling advantages and name recognition. Recent surveys, including July and early August 2026 releases from Paraná Pesquisas and VÓPE, place him ahead with roughly 31-38% support in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil). The two-seat contest features 13 candidates total, with lower-priced contenders facing structural barriers from fragmented opposition and incumbency effects. Trader pricing aligns with these polling patterns while remaining open to shifts from late campaign developments or turnout variations.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,564End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and Senate vice president, leads trader consensus for first place in Tocantins’s October 4, 2026, Senate race at 69.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent polling advantages and name recognition. Recent surveys, including July and early August 2026 releases from Paraná Pesquisas and VÓPE, place him ahead with roughly 31-38% support in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil). The two-seat contest features 13 candidates total, with lower-priced contenders facing structural barriers from fragmented opposition and incumbency effects. Trader pricing aligns with these polling patterns while remaining open to shifts from late campaign developments or turnout variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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