The Alagoas Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive for second place due to shifting candidate fields and entrenched regional rivalries between the Lira and Calheiros political groups. Alfredo Gaspar’s late withdrawal to join another ticket, paired with Marina JHC’s entry alongside Arthur Lira in the Alagoas Gigante II coalition, has redistributed support and created fresh uncertainty. Polls through July showed Gaspar, Renan Calheiros, and Lira clustered within margins of error in consolidated first- and second-preference voting, with Davi Davino Filho and others trailing but holding interior or niche bases. Recent registration finalization and coalition realignments, including MDB pairings of Renan Calheiros with Dr. Wanderley, have kept the ordering fluid heading into the October 4 vote. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, with no dominant path to a clear second-place finish absent late polling shifts or turnout differentials between Maceió and the interior.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Lira 46%
Renan 22%
Marina JHC 5%
Davi Davino Filho 2.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
46%
Renan
30%
Marina JHC
5%
Davi Davino Filho
2%
Alexandre Fleming
1%
Dr. Wanderley
1%
Mariedson
<1%
Arthur Lira 46%
Renan 22%
Marina JHC 5%
Davi Davino Filho 2.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
$3,179 Vol.
46%
Renan
$3,412 Vol.
30%
Marina JHC
$516 Vol.
5%
Davi Davino Filho
$430 Vol.
2%
Alexandre Fleming
$410 Vol.
1%
Dr. Wanderley
$459 Vol.
1%
Mariedson
$463 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive for second place due to shifting candidate fields and entrenched regional rivalries between the Lira and Calheiros political groups. Alfredo Gaspar’s late withdrawal to join another ticket, paired with Marina JHC’s entry alongside Arthur Lira in the Alagoas Gigante II coalition, has redistributed support and created fresh uncertainty. Polls through July showed Gaspar, Renan Calheiros, and Lira clustered within margins of error in consolidated first- and second-preference voting, with Davi Davino Filho and others trailing but holding interior or niche bases. Recent registration finalization and coalition realignments, including MDB pairings of Renan Calheiros with Dr. Wanderley, have kept the ordering fluid heading into the October 4 vote. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, with no dominant path to a clear second-place finish absent late polling shifts or turnout differentials between Maceió and the interior.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$8,869End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive for second place due to shifting candidate fields and entrenched regional rivalries between the Lira and Calheiros political groups. Alfredo Gaspar’s late withdrawal to join another ticket, paired with Marina JHC’s entry alongside Arthur Lira in the Alagoas Gigante II coalition, has redistributed support and created fresh uncertainty. Polls through July showed Gaspar, Renan Calheiros, and Lira clustered within margins of error in consolidated first- and second-preference voting, with Davi Davino Filho and others trailing but holding interior or niche bases. Recent registration finalization and coalition realignments, including MDB pairings of Renan Calheiros with Dr. Wanderley, have kept the ordering fluid heading into the October 4 vote. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, with no dominant path to a clear second-place finish absent late polling shifts or turnout differentials between Maceió and the interior.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,869End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive for second place due to shifting candidate fields and entrenched regional rivalries between the Lira and Calheiros political groups. Alfredo Gaspar’s late withdrawal to join another ticket, paired with Marina JHC’s entry alongside Arthur Lira in the Alagoas Gigante II coalition, has redistributed support and created fresh uncertainty. Polls through July showed Gaspar, Renan Calheiros, and Lira clustered within margins of error in consolidated first- and second-preference voting, with Davi Davino Filho and others trailing but holding interior or niche bases. Recent registration finalization and coalition realignments, including MDB pairings of Renan Calheiros with Dr. Wanderley, have kept the ordering fluid heading into the October 4 vote. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, with no dominant path to a clear second-place finish absent late polling shifts or turnout differentials between Maceió and the interior.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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