The tight race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil drives current trader consensus in the Bahia governor election, reflecting their 2022 runoff rematch and recent polling volatility that has narrowed earlier leads for Neto into near-ties. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency advantages and alignment with President Lula’s national network during campaign launches, while Neto draws support from right-wing blocs and urban bases following his party’s break with the federal administration. The August debate and early August surveys showing margins under five points underscore the competitive dynamics, with turnout patterns, coalition strength in the interior, and any late shifts in voter intention likely to influence outcomes ahead of the October first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$118,103 Vol.
$118,103 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
53%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$118,103 Vol.
$118,103 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$37,601 Vol.
53%
ACM Neto
$40,510 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$12,814 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$10,920 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil drives current trader consensus in the Bahia governor election, reflecting their 2022 runoff rematch and recent polling volatility that has narrowed earlier leads for Neto into near-ties. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency advantages and alignment with President Lula’s national network during campaign launches, while Neto draws support from right-wing blocs and urban bases following his party’s break with the federal administration. The August debate and early August surveys showing margins under five points underscore the competitive dynamics, with turnout patterns, coalition strength in the interior, and any late shifts in voter intention likely to influence outcomes ahead of the October first round.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$118,103End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil drives current trader consensus in the Bahia governor election, reflecting their 2022 runoff rematch and recent polling volatility that has narrowed earlier leads for Neto into near-ties. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency advantages and alignment with President Lula’s national network during campaign launches, while Neto draws support from right-wing blocs and urban bases following his party’s break with the federal administration. The August debate and early August surveys showing margins under five points underscore the competitive dynamics, with turnout patterns, coalition strength in the interior, and any late shifts in voter intention likely to influence outcomes ahead of the October first round.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$118,103End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil drives current trader consensus in the Bahia governor election, reflecting their 2022 runoff rematch and recent polling volatility that has narrowed earlier leads for Neto into near-ties. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency advantages and alignment with President Lula’s national network during campaign launches, while Neto draws support from right-wing blocs and urban bases following his party’s break with the federal administration. The August debate and early August surveys showing margins under five points underscore the competitive dynamics, with turnout patterns, coalition strength in the interior, and any late shifts in voter intention likely to influence outcomes ahead of the October first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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