Lula holds a commanding position in Alagoas for first place in the October 4, 2026 first round, reflecting consistent Northeast regional patterns where the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate has long drawn strong support. A June 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed him at 51% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%, with other names in single digits; similar wide margins appear in recent Pernambuco and Bahia polling. High federal government approval ratings and voter familiarity with Lula’s policy priorities contribute to this positioning, while right-leaning alternatives register limited traction in the state. Formal campaigning began in mid-August, with free media time starting late in the month. Late shifts remain possible if opposition consolidation accelerates or turnout dynamics change, though current state-level evidence points to a durable lead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 94.2%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.9%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$10,645 Vol.
$10,645 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
94%
Flavio Bolsonaro
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 94.2%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.9%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$10,645 Vol.
$10,645 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,247 Vol.
94%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$506 Vol.
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
$476 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$476 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$476 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$476 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$476 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$476 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$396 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$476 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$338 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$348 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$476 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding position in Alagoas for first place in the October 4, 2026 first round, reflecting consistent Northeast regional patterns where the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate has long drawn strong support. A June 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed him at 51% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%, with other names in single digits; similar wide margins appear in recent Pernambuco and Bahia polling. High federal government approval ratings and voter familiarity with Lula’s policy priorities contribute to this positioning, while right-leaning alternatives register limited traction in the state. Formal campaigning began in mid-August, with free media time starting late in the month. Late shifts remain possible if opposition consolidation accelerates or turnout dynamics change, though current state-level evidence points to a durable lead.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Volume
$10,645End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding position in Alagoas for first place in the October 4, 2026 first round, reflecting consistent Northeast regional patterns where the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate has long drawn strong support. A June 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed him at 51% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%, with other names in single digits; similar wide margins appear in recent Pernambuco and Bahia polling. High federal government approval ratings and voter familiarity with Lula’s policy priorities contribute to this positioning, while right-leaning alternatives register limited traction in the state. Formal campaigning began in mid-August, with free media time starting late in the month. Late shifts remain possible if opposition consolidation accelerates or turnout dynamics change, though current state-level evidence points to a durable lead.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,645End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a commanding position in Alagoas for first place in the October 4, 2026 first round, reflecting consistent Northeast regional patterns where the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate has long drawn strong support. A June 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed him at 51% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%, with other names in single digits; similar wide margins appear in recent Pernambuco and Bahia polling. High federal government approval ratings and voter familiarity with Lula’s policy priorities contribute to this positioning, while right-leaning alternatives register limited traction in the state. Formal campaigning began in mid-August, with free media time starting late in the month. Late shifts remain possible if opposition consolidation accelerates or turnout dynamics change, though current state-level evidence points to a durable lead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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