Recent Amapá-specific polls from July and mid-August show Lula holding a narrow first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (typically 36-37% to 31-36%), with other tested names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Lula’s roughly even approval rating in the state and the broader national polarization between the PT incumbent and the PL challenger underpin trader pricing that favors Lula for first place locally. Campaign activities began on August 16 ahead of the October 4 first round, yet no new state-level surveys have emerged since the August fieldwork to shift the local picture. Traders appear to price in Lula’s structural edge in the North while discounting lower-polling alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 65%
Flavio Bolsonaro 27%
Hertz Dias 3.8%
Rui Costa Pimenta 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
27%
Hertz Dias
4%
Rui Costa Pimenta
3%
Pablo Marçal
3%
Clariana Barao
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 65%
Flavio Bolsonaro 27%
Hertz Dias 3.8%
Rui Costa Pimenta 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$917 Vol.
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,010 Vol.
27%
Hertz Dias
$529 Vol.
4%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$468 Vol.
3%
Pablo Marçal
$785 Vol.
3%
Clariana Barao
$195 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$181 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$699 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$462 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$398 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$479 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$534 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Amapá-specific polls from July and mid-August show Lula holding a narrow first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (typically 36-37% to 31-36%), with other tested names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Lula’s roughly even approval rating in the state and the broader national polarization between the PT incumbent and the PL challenger underpin trader pricing that favors Lula for first place locally. Campaign activities began on August 16 ahead of the October 4 first round, yet no new state-level surveys have emerged since the August fieldwork to shift the local picture. Traders appear to price in Lula’s structural edge in the North while discounting lower-polling alternatives.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$7,087End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Amapá-specific polls from July and mid-August show Lula holding a narrow first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (typically 36-37% to 31-36%), with other tested names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Lula’s roughly even approval rating in the state and the broader national polarization between the PT incumbent and the PL challenger underpin trader pricing that favors Lula for first place locally. Campaign activities began on August 16 ahead of the October 4 first round, yet no new state-level surveys have emerged since the August fieldwork to shift the local picture. Traders appear to price in Lula’s structural edge in the North while discounting lower-polling alternatives.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,087End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Amapá-specific polls from July and mid-August show Lula holding a narrow first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (typically 36-37% to 31-36%), with other tested names such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos in single digits. Lula’s roughly even approval rating in the state and the broader national polarization between the PT incumbent and the PL challenger underpin trader pricing that favors Lula for first place locally. Campaign activities began on August 16 ahead of the October 4 first round, yet no new state-level surveys have emerged since the August fieldwork to shift the local picture. Traders appear to price in Lula’s structural edge in the North while discounting lower-polling alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions