Lula leads the Amazonas first-round market at 86.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling advantages in the state where interior municipalities outweigh Manaus and deliver stronger support for the incumbent PT president. National surveys from August 2026 show Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by 5–13 points overall, with northern regional patterns and Lula’s May Amazonas visit reinforcing his position among voters prioritizing development and social programs. The recent Equatorial Margin oil discovery and associated Petrobras activity have further aligned Lula with economic interests in Amazonian states, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s 11.5% reflects his narrower base in the capital and limited gains from right-leaning voters. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain below 1% amid vote fragmentation and Lula’s incumbency edge ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 87%
Flavio Bolsonaro 12%
Renan Santos <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
87%
Flavio Bolsonaro
12%
Renan Santos
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Zema
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 87%
Flavio Bolsonaro 12%
Renan Santos <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,076 Vol.
87%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,347 Vol.
12%
Renan Santos
$414 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$353 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$412 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$376 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$341 Vol.
1%
Zema
$402 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$566 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$421 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$566 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$461 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$351 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads the Amazonas first-round market at 86.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling advantages in the state where interior municipalities outweigh Manaus and deliver stronger support for the incumbent PT president. National surveys from August 2026 show Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by 5–13 points overall, with northern regional patterns and Lula’s May Amazonas visit reinforcing his position among voters prioritizing development and social programs. The recent Equatorial Margin oil discovery and associated Petrobras activity have further aligned Lula with economic interests in Amazonian states, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s 11.5% reflects his narrower base in the capital and limited gains from right-leaning voters. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain below 1% amid vote fragmentation and Lula’s incumbency edge ahead of the October 2026 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,088End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads the Amazonas first-round market at 86.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling advantages in the state where interior municipalities outweigh Manaus and deliver stronger support for the incumbent PT president. National surveys from August 2026 show Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by 5–13 points overall, with northern regional patterns and Lula’s May Amazonas visit reinforcing his position among voters prioritizing development and social programs. The recent Equatorial Margin oil discovery and associated Petrobras activity have further aligned Lula with economic interests in Amazonian states, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s 11.5% reflects his narrower base in the capital and limited gains from right-leaning voters. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain below 1% amid vote fragmentation and Lula’s incumbency edge ahead of the October 2026 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,088End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads the Amazonas first-round market at 86.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling advantages in the state where interior municipalities outweigh Manaus and deliver stronger support for the incumbent PT president. National surveys from August 2026 show Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by 5–13 points overall, with northern regional patterns and Lula’s May Amazonas visit reinforcing his position among voters prioritizing development and social programs. The recent Equatorial Margin oil discovery and associated Petrobras activity have further aligned Lula with economic interests in Amazonian states, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s 11.5% reflects his narrower base in the capital and limited gains from right-leaning voters. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain below 1% amid vote fragmentation and Lula’s incumbency edge ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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