Lula holds an 87.5% implied probability of finishing first in Minas Gerais in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling leads in the state’s large electorate. Recent Datafolha surveys from mid-to-late August show him at 36-37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 31%, with Romeu Zema at 8-10% and remaining candidates below 4%. Earlier Datatempo and Quaest polls from June and July recorded wider margins for the incumbent. Lula’s ongoing campaign events in Belo Horizonte and interior cities, combined with his established support base, have reinforced trader consensus around his position ahead of the October vote. Minor candidates register negligible support in surveys, aligning with their sub-1% market prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 88%
Flavio Bolsonaro 8.8%
Zema <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$11,806 Vol.
$11,806 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
88%
Flavio Bolsonaro
9%
Zema
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 88%
Flavio Bolsonaro 8.8%
Zema <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$11,806 Vol.
$11,806 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,880 Vol.
88%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,280 Vol.
9%
Zema
$967 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$858 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$531 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$525 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$484 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$491 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$649 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$576 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 87.5% implied probability of finishing first in Minas Gerais in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling leads in the state’s large electorate. Recent Datafolha surveys from mid-to-late August show him at 36-37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 31%, with Romeu Zema at 8-10% and remaining candidates below 4%. Earlier Datatempo and Quaest polls from June and July recorded wider margins for the incumbent. Lula’s ongoing campaign events in Belo Horizonte and interior cities, combined with his established support base, have reinforced trader consensus around his position ahead of the October vote. Minor candidates register negligible support in surveys, aligning with their sub-1% market prices.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$11,806End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 87.5% implied probability of finishing first in Minas Gerais in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling leads in the state’s large electorate. Recent Datafolha surveys from mid-to-late August show him at 36-37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 31%, with Romeu Zema at 8-10% and remaining candidates below 4%. Earlier Datatempo and Quaest polls from June and July recorded wider margins for the incumbent. Lula’s ongoing campaign events in Belo Horizonte and interior cities, combined with his established support base, have reinforced trader consensus around his position ahead of the October vote. Minor candidates register negligible support in surveys, aligning with their sub-1% market prices.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$11,806End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds an 87.5% implied probability of finishing first in Minas Gerais in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling leads in the state’s large electorate. Recent Datafolha surveys from mid-to-late August show him at 36-37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 31%, with Romeu Zema at 8-10% and remaining candidates below 4%. Earlier Datatempo and Quaest polls from June and July recorded wider margins for the incumbent. Lula’s ongoing campaign events in Belo Horizonte and interior cities, combined with his established support base, have reinforced trader consensus around his position ahead of the October vote. Minor candidates register negligible support in surveys, aligning with their sub-1% market prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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