Recent Datafolha polling in Rio de Janeiro shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 41% versus Lula (PT) at 36% in the first round, with all other tested names in low single digits. As the sitting senator from the state and the Liberal Party nominee, Flávio benefits from strong local recognition and alignment with bolsonarista voters in a key electoral college. Lula’s national re-election bid has not translated into comparable strength in Rio, where earlier July surveys already showed the senator ahead or tied. Traders price these regional dynamics into elevated odds for a Flávio first-place finish on October 4, while treating smaller candidates as long shots absent major shifts in turnout or endorsements before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 82%
Lula 17%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$11,522 Vol.
$11,522 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
82%
Lula
17%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 82%
Lula 17%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$11,522 Vol.
$11,522 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,981 Vol.
82%
Lula
$2,177 Vol.
17%
Pablo Marçal
$597 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$453 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$373 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$699 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$611 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$567 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$373 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$375 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$453 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$433 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha polling in Rio de Janeiro shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 41% versus Lula (PT) at 36% in the first round, with all other tested names in low single digits. As the sitting senator from the state and the Liberal Party nominee, Flávio benefits from strong local recognition and alignment with bolsonarista voters in a key electoral college. Lula’s national re-election bid has not translated into comparable strength in Rio, where earlier July surveys already showed the senator ahead or tied. Traders price these regional dynamics into elevated odds for a Flávio first-place finish on October 4, while treating smaller candidates as long shots absent major shifts in turnout or endorsements before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$11,522End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha polling in Rio de Janeiro shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 41% versus Lula (PT) at 36% in the first round, with all other tested names in low single digits. As the sitting senator from the state and the Liberal Party nominee, Flávio benefits from strong local recognition and alignment with bolsonarista voters in a key electoral college. Lula’s national re-election bid has not translated into comparable strength in Rio, where earlier July surveys already showed the senator ahead or tied. Traders price these regional dynamics into elevated odds for a Flávio first-place finish on October 4, while treating smaller candidates as long shots absent major shifts in turnout or endorsements before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$11,522End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Datafolha polling in Rio de Janeiro shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 41% versus Lula (PT) at 36% in the first round, with all other tested names in low single digits. As the sitting senator from the state and the Liberal Party nominee, Flávio benefits from strong local recognition and alignment with bolsonarista voters in a key electoral college. Lula’s national re-election bid has not translated into comparable strength in Rio, where earlier July surveys already showed the senator ahead or tied. Traders price these regional dynamics into elevated odds for a Flávio first-place finish on October 4, while treating smaller candidates as long shots absent major shifts in turnout or endorsements before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions