Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Roraima’s presidential election first round, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages in the northern state. Regional voting patterns, strong name recognition tied to the Bolsonaro family’s prior national performance, and limited competition from established local or national figures have reinforced this positioning. Other candidates, including Lula at 2.1% and scattered lower-probability options, show minimal market support. Factors that could still shift the outcome include unexpected late endorsements, shifts in turnout among key demographics, or major national developments that realign state-level preferences before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 96.4%
Lula 2.9%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Lula
3%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 96.4%
Lula 2.9%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,277 Vol.
96%
Lula
$488 Vol.
3%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$366 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$334 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$413 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$444 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$407 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$363 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$363 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$363 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$331 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$333 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$327 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Roraima’s presidential election first round, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages in the northern state. Regional voting patterns, strong name recognition tied to the Bolsonaro family’s prior national performance, and limited competition from established local or national figures have reinforced this positioning. Other candidates, including Lula at 2.1% and scattered lower-probability options, show minimal market support. Factors that could still shift the outcome include unexpected late endorsements, shifts in turnout among key demographics, or major national developments that realign state-level preferences before the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$7,812End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Roraima’s presidential election first round, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages in the northern state. Regional voting patterns, strong name recognition tied to the Bolsonaro family’s prior national performance, and limited competition from established local or national figures have reinforced this positioning. Other candidates, including Lula at 2.1% and scattered lower-probability options, show minimal market support. Factors that could still shift the outcome include unexpected late endorsements, shifts in turnout among key demographics, or major national developments that realign state-level preferences before the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,812End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Roraima’s presidential election first round, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages in the northern state. Regional voting patterns, strong name recognition tied to the Bolsonaro family’s prior national performance, and limited competition from established local or national figures have reinforced this positioning. Other candidates, including Lula at 2.1% and scattered lower-probability options, show minimal market support. Factors that could still shift the outcome include unexpected late endorsements, shifts in turnout among key demographics, or major national developments that realign state-level preferences before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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