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Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo

Flavio Bolsonaro 89%

Lula 12.0%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Flavio Bolsonaro 89%

Lula 12.0%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$3,137 Vol.

89%

icon for Lula

Lula

$1,092 Vol.

12%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$344 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$351 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$359 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$447 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$255 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$399 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$398 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$393 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$390 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$404 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$398 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A late-August Datafolha survey in São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral college with over 34 million voters, showed Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) at 37% in first-round presidential voting intentions, ahead of incumbent Lula (PT) at 33%, with Renan Santos (Missão) at 5%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 4%, and Romeu Zema (Novo) and Augusto Cury (Avante) at 3% each. The poll, conducted August 18–21, reinforced trader consensus around Flavio’s lead by demonstrating a narrow but consistent edge in the state where Jair Bolsonaro-backed candidates have historically performed strongly. Earlier July surveys had shown tighter or reversed gaps, making the fresh data a key catalyst. Lula’s lower positioning aligns with his weaker standing among Paulista voters, while fringe candidates remain sidelined by limited polling support and minimal name recognition ahead of the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,368
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A late-August Datafolha survey in São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral college with over 34 million voters, showed Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) at 37% in first-round presidential voting intentions, ahead of incumbent Lula (PT) at 33%, with Renan Santos (Missão) at 5%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 4%, and Romeu Zema (Novo) and Augusto Cury (Avante) at 3% each. The poll, conducted August 18–21, reinforced trader consensus around Flavio’s lead by demonstrating a narrow but consistent edge in the state where Jair Bolsonaro-backed candidates have historically performed strongly. Earlier July surveys had shown tighter or reversed gaps, making the fresh data a key catalyst. Lula’s lower positioning aligns with his weaker standing among Paulista voters, while fringe candidates remain sidelined by limited polling support and minimal name recognition ahead of the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,368
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 89%, followed by "Lula" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.