Skip to main content
icon for Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place

Capitão Wagner 42%

Cid Gomes 25%

Luizianne 23%

Alcides Fernandes 2.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Capitão Wagner 42%

Cid Gomes 25%

Luizianne 23%

Alcides Fernandes 2.8%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Capitão Wagner

Capitão Wagner

$4,768 Vol.

42%

icon for Cid Gomes

Cid Gomes

$620 Vol.

25%

icon for Luizianne

Luizianne

$938 Vol.

23%

icon for Alcides Fernandes

Alcides Fernandes

$241 Vol.

3%

icon for Reginaldo

Reginaldo

$374 Vol.

2%

icon for Catarina Matos

Catarina Matos

$869 Vol.

2%

icon for Lino Alves

Lino Alves

$328 Vol.

1%

icon for Guilherme Theophilo

Guilherme Theophilo

$179 Vol.

1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes including Datafolha, Ipsos-Ipec, and Real Time Big Data shows Cid Gomes (PSB) leading Senate intentions in Ceará at 25-27%, positioning him as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 2026 vote for the state's two seats. This leaves the contest for second tightly contested, with Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede) trading support in the 14-22% range across scenarios, while lower-polling names such as Alcides Fernandes and Guilherme Theophilo trail. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing gives Wagner the clearest edge for second amid stable but undecided voter sentiment and ongoing campaign positioning. Late shifts in alliances, turnout among key regional blocs, or additional polling releases before the election could widen gaps among the main contenders.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,319
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes including Datafolha, Ipsos-Ipec, and Real Time Big Data shows Cid Gomes (PSB) leading Senate intentions in Ceará at 25-27%, positioning him as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 2026 vote for the state's two seats. This leaves the contest for second tightly contested, with Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede) trading support in the 14-22% range across scenarios, while lower-polling names such as Alcides Fernandes and Guilherme Theophilo trail. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing gives Wagner the clearest edge for second amid stable but undecided voter sentiment and ongoing campaign positioning. Late shifts in alliances, turnout among key regional blocs, or additional polling releases before the election could widen gaps among the main contenders.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,319
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Related

icon for Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?

Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?

55%
icon for Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

31%
icon for Will Humberto Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?

Will Humberto Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?

36%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Capitão Wagner" at 42%, followed by "Cid Gomes" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Capitão Wagner" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Cid Gomes" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.