Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Espírito Santo Senate election due to consistent polling dominance since mid-2025, with shares ranging from 24% to over 30% across scenarios—far ahead of rivals such as Paulo Hartung, Sérgio Meneguelli, and Fabiano Contarato. His extensive record as a multi-term governor, prior senator, and state executive has built broad name recognition and voter loyalty ahead of the October 4 vote for the two seats. Recent candidate registrations and July polling reinforce this positioning, with no major shifts or scandals altering the landscape in the past month. Challenges could emerge from late consolidation behind a single opponent, unusually high turnout favoring lesser-known names, or unforeseen campaign developments, though historical patterns of incumbency strength in Brazilian Senate races make such reversals uncommon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenato Casagrande 96.5%
Fabiano Contarato 1.8%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
Rodney Miranda <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
97%
Fabiano Contarato
2%
Leonardo Monjardim
1%
Rodney Miranda
1%
Maguinha Malta
1%
Professor Fabian
1%
Rose de Freitas
<1%
Callegari
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
<1%
Evair de Melo
<1%
Marcos do Val
<1%
Renato Casagrande 96.5%
Fabiano Contarato 1.8%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
Rodney Miranda <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
$5,661 Vol.
97%
Fabiano Contarato
$398 Vol.
2%
Leonardo Monjardim
$360 Vol.
1%
Rodney Miranda
$378 Vol.
1%
Maguinha Malta
$594 Vol.
1%
Professor Fabian
$299 Vol.
1%
Rose de Freitas
$359 Vol.
<1%
Callegari
$367 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
$402 Vol.
<1%
Evair de Melo
$382 Vol.
<1%
Marcos do Val
$402 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Espírito Santo Senate election due to consistent polling dominance since mid-2025, with shares ranging from 24% to over 30% across scenarios—far ahead of rivals such as Paulo Hartung, Sérgio Meneguelli, and Fabiano Contarato. His extensive record as a multi-term governor, prior senator, and state executive has built broad name recognition and voter loyalty ahead of the October 4 vote for the two seats. Recent candidate registrations and July polling reinforce this positioning, with no major shifts or scandals altering the landscape in the past month. Challenges could emerge from late consolidation behind a single opponent, unusually high turnout favoring lesser-known names, or unforeseen campaign developments, though historical patterns of incumbency strength in Brazilian Senate races make such reversals uncommon.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$9,602End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Espírito Santo Senate election due to consistent polling dominance since mid-2025, with shares ranging from 24% to over 30% across scenarios—far ahead of rivals such as Paulo Hartung, Sérgio Meneguelli, and Fabiano Contarato. His extensive record as a multi-term governor, prior senator, and state executive has built broad name recognition and voter loyalty ahead of the October 4 vote for the two seats. Recent candidate registrations and July polling reinforce this positioning, with no major shifts or scandals altering the landscape in the past month. Challenges could emerge from late consolidation behind a single opponent, unusually high turnout favoring lesser-known names, or unforeseen campaign developments, though historical patterns of incumbency strength in Brazilian Senate races make such reversals uncommon.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,602End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Espírito Santo Senate election due to consistent polling dominance since mid-2025, with shares ranging from 24% to over 30% across scenarios—far ahead of rivals such as Paulo Hartung, Sérgio Meneguelli, and Fabiano Contarato. His extensive record as a multi-term governor, prior senator, and state executive has built broad name recognition and voter loyalty ahead of the October 4 vote for the two seats. Recent candidate registrations and July polling reinforce this positioning, with no major shifts or scandals altering the landscape in the past month. Challenges could emerge from late consolidation behind a single opponent, unusually high turnout favoring lesser-known names, or unforeseen campaign developments, though historical patterns of incumbency strength in Brazilian Senate races make such reversals uncommon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions