Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-preference votes at 19-25%, while Leila do Vôlei, Erika Kokay, and Bia Kicis remain statistically tied within margins of error for the second Senate seat in the October 4 election. With two vacancies and voters selecting two names, trader prices reflect the narrow gap among the trailing trio amid 67% undecided respondents in spontaneous surveys. Alliances have sharpened the contest, with Leila backed by Lula-aligned parties and Kokay on the left, versus the PL ticket pairing Michelle and Kicis. Low support for remaining registered candidates limits their upside. Late shifts in undecided voters, turnout differentials, or explicit coalition signals ahead of the final registration window could separate the second-place contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 53%
Bia Kicis 22%
Erika Kokay 16%
Michelle Bolsonaro 7.4%
$22,357 Vol.
$22,357 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
53%
Bia Kicis
22%
Erika Kokay
16%
Michelle Bolsonaro
7%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 53%
Bia Kicis 22%
Erika Kokay 16%
Michelle Bolsonaro 7.4%
$22,357 Vol.
$22,357 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$4,612 Vol.
53%
Bia Kicis
$6,551 Vol.
22%
Erika Kokay
$2,326 Vol.
16%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,316 Vol.
7%
David Horn
$1,739 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$520 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-preference votes at 19-25%, while Leila do Vôlei, Erika Kokay, and Bia Kicis remain statistically tied within margins of error for the second Senate seat in the October 4 election. With two vacancies and voters selecting two names, trader prices reflect the narrow gap among the trailing trio amid 67% undecided respondents in spontaneous surveys. Alliances have sharpened the contest, with Leila backed by Lula-aligned parties and Kokay on the left, versus the PL ticket pairing Michelle and Kicis. Low support for remaining registered candidates limits their upside. Late shifts in undecided voters, turnout differentials, or explicit coalition signals ahead of the final registration window could separate the second-place contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$22,357End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-preference votes at 19-25%, while Leila do Vôlei, Erika Kokay, and Bia Kicis remain statistically tied within margins of error for the second Senate seat in the October 4 election. With two vacancies and voters selecting two names, trader prices reflect the narrow gap among the trailing trio amid 67% undecided respondents in spontaneous surveys. Alliances have sharpened the contest, with Leila backed by Lula-aligned parties and Kokay on the left, versus the PL ticket pairing Michelle and Kicis. Low support for remaining registered candidates limits their upside. Late shifts in undecided voters, turnout differentials, or explicit coalition signals ahead of the final registration window could separate the second-place contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,357End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-preference votes at 19-25%, while Leila do Vôlei, Erika Kokay, and Bia Kicis remain statistically tied within margins of error for the second Senate seat in the October 4 election. With two vacancies and voters selecting two names, trader prices reflect the narrow gap among the trailing trio amid 67% undecided respondents in spontaneous surveys. Alliances have sharpened the contest, with Leila backed by Lula-aligned parties and Kokay on the left, versus the PL ticket pairing Michelle and Kicis. Low support for remaining registered candidates limits their upside. Late shifts in undecided voters, turnout differentials, or explicit coalition signals ahead of the final registration window could separate the second-place contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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