**Official National Weather Service forecasts project a high near 104°F in Austin on August 24 under persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, consistent with the ongoing Central Texas heat wave where recent daily maxima have reached 105–107°F. Low humidity and light winds enhance surface warming by limiting evaporative cooling and allowing maximum solar insolation. Model consensus and climatological analogs for late-August conditions under similar ridge patterns support the market-implied odds favoring 104–105°F (57.5%) over slightly cooler or hotter bins, though small forecast adjustments from afternoon mixing or localized effects could shift the exact peak within the 102–106°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 24?
104-105°F 57%
102-103°F 36%
106-107°F 7%
100-101°F 3%
NEW
$11,592 Vol.
NEW
$11,592 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
36%
104-105°F
57%
106-107°F
7%
108-109°F
1%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 57%
102-103°F 36%
106-107°F 7%
100-101°F 3%
NEW
$11,592 Vol.
NEW
$11,592 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
$65 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$163 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$316 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$887 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$2,900 Vol.
36%
104-105°F
$4,737 Vol.
57%
106-107°F
$1,146 Vol.
7%
108-109°F
$375 Vol.
1%
110-111°F
$591 Vol.
<1%
112-113°F
$222 Vol.
<1%
114°F or higher
$190 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts project a high near 104°F in Austin on August 24 under persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, consistent with the ongoing Central Texas heat wave where recent daily maxima have reached 105–107°F. Low humidity and light winds enhance surface warming by limiting evaporative cooling and allowing maximum solar insolation. Model consensus and climatological analogs for late-August conditions under similar ridge patterns support the market-implied odds favoring 104–105°F (57.5%) over slightly cooler or hotter bins, though small forecast adjustments from afternoon mixing or localized effects could shift the exact peak within the 102–106°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,592End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts project a high near 104°F in Austin on August 24 under persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, consistent with the ongoing Central Texas heat wave where recent daily maxima have reached 105–107°F. Low humidity and light winds enhance surface warming by limiting evaporative cooling and allowing maximum solar insolation. Model consensus and climatological analogs for late-August conditions under similar ridge patterns support the market-implied odds favoring 104–105°F (57.5%) over slightly cooler or hotter bins, though small forecast adjustments from afternoon mixing or localized effects could shift the exact peak within the 102–106°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,592End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service forecasts project a high near 104°F in Austin on August 24 under persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, consistent with the ongoing Central Texas heat wave where recent daily maxima have reached 105–107°F. Low humidity and light winds enhance surface warming by limiting evaporative cooling and allowing maximum solar insolation. Model consensus and climatological analogs for late-August conditions under similar ridge patterns support the market-implied odds favoring 104–105°F (57.5%) over slightly cooler or hotter bins, though small forecast adjustments from afternoon mixing or localized effects could shift the exact peak within the 102–106°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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