Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 17 of 18–19°C as the most likely outcome, driven by the shift to cooler westerly flow behind a cold front and widespread cloud cover with light rain suppressing daytime heating. This follows unusually warm southerly advection on September 16 that produced highs near 24–25°C. Consensus across sources places the peak near midday under mostly cloudy skies with west winds around 10–15 km/h and dew points in the low teens, limiting further warming. The narrow 42.5–37.5% split between 19°C and 18°C in the market reflects minor differences in how models resolve the exact timing and intensity of showers versus partial clearing. Resolution will depend on the official highest hourly reading, with any unexpected break in cloud cover potentially pushing the maximum toward the upper end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
19°C 44%
18°C 34%
17°C 10%
20°C 9%
NEW
$10,362 Vol.
NEW
$10,362 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
10%
18°C
34%
19°C
44%
20°C
9%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
19°C 44%
18°C 34%
17°C 10%
20°C 9%
NEW
$10,362 Vol.
NEW
$10,362 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$183 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$143 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$256 Vol.
1%
16°C
$252 Vol.
2%
17°C
$2,358 Vol.
10%
18°C
$1,688 Vol.
34%
19°C
$2,211 Vol.
44%
20°C
$1,310 Vol.
9%
21°C
$123 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$414 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 17 of 18–19°C as the most likely outcome, driven by the shift to cooler westerly flow behind a cold front and widespread cloud cover with light rain suppressing daytime heating. This follows unusually warm southerly advection on September 16 that produced highs near 24–25°C. Consensus across sources places the peak near midday under mostly cloudy skies with west winds around 10–15 km/h and dew points in the low teens, limiting further warming. The narrow 42.5–37.5% split between 19°C and 18°C in the market reflects minor differences in how models resolve the exact timing and intensity of showers versus partial clearing. Resolution will depend on the official highest hourly reading, with any unexpected break in cloud cover potentially pushing the maximum toward the upper end of the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,362End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 17 of 18–19°C as the most likely outcome, driven by the shift to cooler westerly flow behind a cold front and widespread cloud cover with light rain suppressing daytime heating. This follows unusually warm southerly advection on September 16 that produced highs near 24–25°C. Consensus across sources places the peak near midday under mostly cloudy skies with west winds around 10–15 km/h and dew points in the low teens, limiting further warming. The narrow 42.5–37.5% split between 19°C and 18°C in the market reflects minor differences in how models resolve the exact timing and intensity of showers versus partial clearing. Resolution will depend on the official highest hourly reading, with any unexpected break in cloud cover potentially pushing the maximum toward the upper end of the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,362End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 17 of 18–19°C as the most likely outcome, driven by the shift to cooler westerly flow behind a cold front and widespread cloud cover with light rain suppressing daytime heating. This follows unusually warm southerly advection on September 16 that produced highs near 24–25°C. Consensus across sources places the peak near midday under mostly cloudy skies with west winds around 10–15 km/h and dew points in the low teens, limiting further warming. The narrow 42.5–37.5% split between 19°C and 18°C in the market reflects minor differences in how models resolve the exact timing and intensity of showers versus partial clearing. Resolution will depend on the official highest hourly reading, with any unexpected break in cloud cover potentially pushing the maximum toward the upper end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions