Recent forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a frontal passage bringing westerly flow and widespread rain to Warsaw on September 17, with daytime highs near 18–20°C and overnight lows expected between 11–14°C under clearing skies. This pattern, following warmer southerly flow on September 16, supports trader emphasis on mid-teens minima while the 45% implied probability on 7°C or below reflects residual model spread and potential for stronger radiational cooling if clouds break earlier than anticipated. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for the 34% odds on 17°C or higher, which would require an unusually mild air mass to persist. Updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will be key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
7°C or below 100%
17°C or higher 95%
9°C 40%
11°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
7°C or below
100%
8°C
17%
9°C
40%
10°C
21%
11°C
23%
12°C
22%
13°C
22%
14°C
22%
15°C
13%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
95%
7°C or below 100%
17°C or higher 95%
9°C 40%
11°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
8°C
$0 Vol.
17%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
23%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
13%
16°C
$46 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a frontal passage bringing westerly flow and widespread rain to Warsaw on September 17, with daytime highs near 18–20°C and overnight lows expected between 11–14°C under clearing skies. This pattern, following warmer southerly flow on September 16, supports trader emphasis on mid-teens minima while the 45% implied probability on 7°C or below reflects residual model spread and potential for stronger radiational cooling if clouds break earlier than anticipated. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for the 34% odds on 17°C or higher, which would require an unusually mild air mass to persist. Updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will be key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$46End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a frontal passage bringing westerly flow and widespread rain to Warsaw on September 17, with daytime highs near 18–20°C and overnight lows expected between 11–14°C under clearing skies. This pattern, following warmer southerly flow on September 16, supports trader emphasis on mid-teens minima while the 45% implied probability on 7°C or below reflects residual model spread and potential for stronger radiational cooling if clouds break earlier than anticipated. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for the 34% odds on 17°C or higher, which would require an unusually mild air mass to persist. Updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will be key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a frontal passage bringing westerly flow and widespread rain to Warsaw on September 17, with daytime highs near 18–20°C and overnight lows expected between 11–14°C under clearing skies. This pattern, following warmer southerly flow on September 16, supports trader emphasis on mid-teens minima while the 45% implied probability on 7°C or below reflects residual model spread and potential for stronger radiational cooling if clouds break earlier than anticipated. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for the 34% odds on 17°C or higher, which would require an unusually mild air mass to persist. Updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will be key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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