**Forecast model consensus from agencies and numerical weather prediction systems, including GFS runs, supports a minimum temperature near 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, 2026.** Overnight radiative cooling under relatively clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds allowed surface temperatures to drop to this level, aligning with mid-September climatological baselines for the region (typical lows 9–12°C). Hourly observations and updated model outputs through the morning and early afternoon confirmed the low was reached before daytime warming to the mid-20s°C. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability reflects this strong data alignment and the limited scope for revision once official station measurements finalize resolution. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sustained cloud cover or stronger mixing winds raising the recorded minimum above the 10°C threshold by a degree or more, though current conditions make that unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 16?
10°C 98%
9°C 7%
8°C 2%
7°C <1%
$1,119 Vol.
$1,119 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
98%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
10°C 98%
9°C 7%
8°C 2%
7°C <1%
$1,119 Vol.
$1,119 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
$16 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$181 Vol.
1%
8°C
$324 Vol.
2%
9°C
$21 Vol.
7%
10°C
$55 Vol.
98%
11°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$231 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$46 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$16 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model consensus from agencies and numerical weather prediction systems, including GFS runs, supports a minimum temperature near 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, 2026.** Overnight radiative cooling under relatively clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds allowed surface temperatures to drop to this level, aligning with mid-September climatological baselines for the region (typical lows 9–12°C). Hourly observations and updated model outputs through the morning and early afternoon confirmed the low was reached before daytime warming to the mid-20s°C. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability reflects this strong data alignment and the limited scope for revision once official station measurements finalize resolution. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sustained cloud cover or stronger mixing winds raising the recorded minimum above the 10°C threshold by a degree or more, though current conditions make that unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,119End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model consensus from agencies and numerical weather prediction systems, including GFS runs, supports a minimum temperature near 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, 2026.** Overnight radiative cooling under relatively clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds allowed surface temperatures to drop to this level, aligning with mid-September climatological baselines for the region (typical lows 9–12°C). Hourly observations and updated model outputs through the morning and early afternoon confirmed the low was reached before daytime warming to the mid-20s°C. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability reflects this strong data alignment and the limited scope for revision once official station measurements finalize resolution. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sustained cloud cover or stronger mixing winds raising the recorded minimum above the 10°C threshold by a degree or more, though current conditions make that unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,119End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model consensus from agencies and numerical weather prediction systems, including GFS runs, supports a minimum temperature near 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, 2026.** Overnight radiative cooling under relatively clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds allowed surface temperatures to drop to this level, aligning with mid-September climatological baselines for the region (typical lows 9–12°C). Hourly observations and updated model outputs through the morning and early afternoon confirmed the low was reached before daytime warming to the mid-20s°C. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability reflects this strong data alignment and the limited scope for revision once official station measurements finalize resolution. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sustained cloud cover or stronger mixing winds raising the recorded minimum above the 10°C threshold by a degree or more, though current conditions make that unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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