Forecast models show notable divergence for Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 18, with roughly equal market-implied odds on a cool scenario (5°C or below) versus a milder one (15°C or higher). Primary drivers include uncertainty in the position and strength of an approaching high-pressure system and associated cold-air advection from the northeast, alongside variable cloud cover that affects nighttime radiative cooling. Ensemble runs from major centers highlight sensitivity to small shifts in wind patterns and boundary-layer moisture, which can swing overnight lows by 8–10°C. Historical mid-September baselines place typical minima near 10–12°C, underscoring how current atmospheric setup deviates from climatology. Fresh model guidance and updated observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
5°C or below 99%
15°C or higher 98%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
99%
6°C
19%
7°C
21%
8°C
37%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
40%
12°C
36%
13°C
39%
14°C
38%
15°C or higher
98%
5°C or below 99%
15°C or higher 98%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
6°C
$0 Vol.
19%
7°C
$0 Vol.
21%
8°C
$0 Vol.
37%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
36%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
38%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models show notable divergence for Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 18, with roughly equal market-implied odds on a cool scenario (5°C or below) versus a milder one (15°C or higher). Primary drivers include uncertainty in the position and strength of an approaching high-pressure system and associated cold-air advection from the northeast, alongside variable cloud cover that affects nighttime radiative cooling. Ensemble runs from major centers highlight sensitivity to small shifts in wind patterns and boundary-layer moisture, which can swing overnight lows by 8–10°C. Historical mid-September baselines place typical minima near 10–12°C, underscoring how current atmospheric setup deviates from climatology. Fresh model guidance and updated observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models show notable divergence for Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 18, with roughly equal market-implied odds on a cool scenario (5°C or below) versus a milder one (15°C or higher). Primary drivers include uncertainty in the position and strength of an approaching high-pressure system and associated cold-air advection from the northeast, alongside variable cloud cover that affects nighttime radiative cooling. Ensemble runs from major centers highlight sensitivity to small shifts in wind patterns and boundary-layer moisture, which can swing overnight lows by 8–10°C. Historical mid-September baselines place typical minima near 10–12°C, underscoring how current atmospheric setup deviates from climatology. Fresh model guidance and updated observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models show notable divergence for Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 18, with roughly equal market-implied odds on a cool scenario (5°C or below) versus a milder one (15°C or higher). Primary drivers include uncertainty in the position and strength of an approaching high-pressure system and associated cold-air advection from the northeast, alongside variable cloud cover that affects nighttime radiative cooling. Ensemble runs from major centers highlight sensitivity to small shifts in wind patterns and boundary-layer moisture, which can swing overnight lows by 8–10°C. Historical mid-September baselines place typical minima near 10–12°C, underscoring how current atmospheric setup deviates from climatology. Fresh model guidance and updated observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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