**Persistent monsoon-driven cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity in Guangzhou's subtropical climate are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited on August 24, 2026, supporting market-implied odds favoring a daily minimum near 25–27 °C.** Official and model forecasts (including GFS-based runs) show lows clustered around 26–28 °C, consistent with the 58% implied probability on 27 °C and secondary support for 25 °C and 26 °C. Widespread rain, overcast skies, and dew points near 26–27 °C suppress temperature drops after sunset, while light winds limit mixing. This aligns with late-August climatology (average low ~25.3 °C) but is elevated by current convective activity and moisture. Lower probabilities below 24 °C reflect the low likelihood of clear-sky conditions or a stronger frontal intrusion that would allow greater cooling, while higher readings (≥28 °C) are discounted given ongoing precipitation and cloud cover. Traders are weighting real-time observational trends and short-term model consensus showing stable warm, humid nights rather than historical extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 24?
25°C 34%
26°C 34%
24°C 33%
23°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
33%
25°C
34%
26°C
34%
27°C
58%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 34%
26°C 34%
24°C 33%
23°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
20°C or below
$159 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$181 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$179 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$22 Vol.
33%
25°C
$0 Vol.
34%
26°C
$0 Vol.
34%
27°C
$123 Vol.
58%
28°C
$338 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent monsoon-driven cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity in Guangzhou's subtropical climate are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited on August 24, 2026, supporting market-implied odds favoring a daily minimum near 25–27 °C.**
Official and model forecasts (including GFS-based runs) show lows clustered around 26–28 °C, consistent with the 58% implied probability on 27 °C and secondary support for 25 °C and 26 °C. Widespread rain, overcast skies, and dew points near 26–27 °C suppress temperature drops after sunset, while light winds limit mixing.
This aligns with late-August climatology (average low ~25.3 °C) but is elevated by current convective activity and moisture. Lower probabilities below 24 °C reflect the low likelihood of clear-sky conditions or a stronger frontal intrusion that would allow greater cooling, while higher readings (≥28 °C) are discounted given ongoing precipitation and cloud cover.
Traders are weighting real-time observational trends and short-term model consensus showing stable warm, humid nights rather than historical extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$1,515End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent monsoon-driven cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity in Guangzhou's subtropical climate are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited on August 24, 2026, supporting market-implied odds favoring a daily minimum near 25–27 °C.**
Official and model forecasts (including GFS-based runs) show lows clustered around 26–28 °C, consistent with the 58% implied probability on 27 °C and secondary support for 25 °C and 26 °C. Widespread rain, overcast skies, and dew points near 26–27 °C suppress temperature drops after sunset, while light winds limit mixing.
This aligns with late-August climatology (average low ~25.3 °C) but is elevated by current convective activity and moisture. Lower probabilities below 24 °C reflect the low likelihood of clear-sky conditions or a stronger frontal intrusion that would allow greater cooling, while higher readings (≥28 °C) are discounted given ongoing precipitation and cloud cover.
Traders are weighting real-time observational trends and short-term model consensus showing stable warm, humid nights rather than historical extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,515End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent monsoon-driven cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity in Guangzhou's subtropical climate are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited on August 24, 2026, supporting market-implied odds favoring a daily minimum near 25–27 °C.** Official and model forecasts (including GFS-based runs) show lows clustered around 26–28 °C, consistent with the 58% implied probability on 27 °C and secondary support for 25 °C and 26 °C. Widespread rain, overcast skies, and dew points near 26–27 °C suppress temperature drops after sunset, while light winds limit mixing. This aligns with late-August climatology (average low ~25.3 °C) but is elevated by current convective activity and moisture. Lower probabilities below 24 °C reflect the low likelihood of clear-sky conditions or a stronger frontal intrusion that would allow greater cooling, while higher readings (≥28 °C) are discounted given ongoing precipitation and cloud cover. Traders are weighting real-time observational trends and short-term model consensus showing stable warm, humid nights rather than historical extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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