Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and moderate overnight rain on August 23–24 have limited radiative cooling in Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate, compressing the diurnal temperature range and positioning the lowest reading near 27–28 °C according to official forecasts. Model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows overnight minima holding at or above 27 °C, consistent with August climatology where average lows reach 26–27 °C amid monsoon influences. Recent surface observations confirm elevated dew points and minimal wind, further suppressing temperature drops, while any brief clearing could allow a dip toward 27 °C. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes, with lower thresholds remaining unlikely absent an unexpected dry slot or stronger cold-air intrusion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24?
29°C 55.5%
25°C 2%
26°C 2%
21°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
-
28°C
45%
29°C
55%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
29°C 55.5%
25°C 2%
26°C 2%
21°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
$885 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$351 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$141 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$138 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$88 Vol.
2%
26°C
$79 Vol.
2%
27°C
$47 Vol.
-
28°C
$71 Vol.
45%
29°C
$3,363 Vol.
55%
30°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and moderate overnight rain on August 23–24 have limited radiative cooling in Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate, compressing the diurnal temperature range and positioning the lowest reading near 27–28 °C according to official forecasts. Model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows overnight minima holding at or above 27 °C, consistent with August climatology where average lows reach 26–27 °C amid monsoon influences. Recent surface observations confirm elevated dew points and minimal wind, further suppressing temperature drops, while any brief clearing could allow a dip toward 27 °C. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes, with lower thresholds remaining unlikely absent an unexpected dry slot or stronger cold-air intrusion.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5,433End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and moderate overnight rain on August 23–24 have limited radiative cooling in Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate, compressing the diurnal temperature range and positioning the lowest reading near 27–28 °C according to official forecasts. Model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows overnight minima holding at or above 27 °C, consistent with August climatology where average lows reach 26–27 °C amid monsoon influences. Recent surface observations confirm elevated dew points and minimal wind, further suppressing temperature drops, while any brief clearing could allow a dip toward 27 °C. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes, with lower thresholds remaining unlikely absent an unexpected dry slot or stronger cold-air intrusion.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,433End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and moderate overnight rain on August 23–24 have limited radiative cooling in Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate, compressing the diurnal temperature range and positioning the lowest reading near 27–28 °C according to official forecasts. Model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows overnight minima holding at or above 27 °C, consistent with August climatology where average lows reach 26–27 °C amid monsoon influences. Recent surface observations confirm elevated dew points and minimal wind, further suppressing temperature drops, while any brief clearing could allow a dip toward 27 °C. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes, with lower thresholds remaining unlikely absent an unexpected dry slot or stronger cold-air intrusion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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