Reinaldo Azambuja maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election due to consistent polling advantages and party consolidation. August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and other firms place the former governor at 30-38% in consolidated voting intentions, well ahead of Capitão Contar and others, reflecting his incumbency advantages from two terms as state executive and broad coalition backing within the PL. Party conventions in July and early August formalized Azambuja alongside Contar as the main tickets, narrowing the field among ten registered candidates. Lower probabilities for Vander Loubet, Soraya Thronicke, and remaining contenders align with their single-digit shares in recent data, though the October 4 vote leaves room for shifts from turnout patterns or late campaign developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReinaldo Azambuja 75%
Capitão Contar 10%
Vander Loubet 4.7%
Roberto Oshiro 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
75%
Capitão Contar
10%
Vander Loubet
5%
Roberto Oshiro
2%
Soraya
1%
Valter da Comagran
1%
Daniel Junior
1%
Beto do Movimento
1%
Valderi Garcia
1%
Luiz Lemes
<1%
Reinaldo Azambuja 75%
Capitão Contar 10%
Vander Loubet 4.7%
Roberto Oshiro 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$3,778 Vol.
75%
Capitão Contar
$1,811 Vol.
10%
Vander Loubet
$157 Vol.
5%
Roberto Oshiro
$228 Vol.
2%
Soraya
$157 Vol.
1%
Valter da Comagran
$226 Vol.
1%
Daniel Junior
$152 Vol.
1%
Beto do Movimento
$157 Vol.
1%
Valderi Garcia
$157 Vol.
1%
Luiz Lemes
$178 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election due to consistent polling advantages and party consolidation. August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and other firms place the former governor at 30-38% in consolidated voting intentions, well ahead of Capitão Contar and others, reflecting his incumbency advantages from two terms as state executive and broad coalition backing within the PL. Party conventions in July and early August formalized Azambuja alongside Contar as the main tickets, narrowing the field among ten registered candidates. Lower probabilities for Vander Loubet, Soraya Thronicke, and remaining contenders align with their single-digit shares in recent data, though the October 4 vote leaves room for shifts from turnout patterns or late campaign developments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$7,000End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election due to consistent polling advantages and party consolidation. August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and other firms place the former governor at 30-38% in consolidated voting intentions, well ahead of Capitão Contar and others, reflecting his incumbency advantages from two terms as state executive and broad coalition backing within the PL. Party conventions in July and early August formalized Azambuja alongside Contar as the main tickets, narrowing the field among ten registered candidates. Lower probabilities for Vander Loubet, Soraya Thronicke, and remaining contenders align with their single-digit shares in recent data, though the October 4 vote leaves room for shifts from turnout patterns or late campaign developments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,000End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election due to consistent polling advantages and party consolidation. August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and other firms place the former governor at 30-38% in consolidated voting intentions, well ahead of Capitão Contar and others, reflecting his incumbency advantages from two terms as state executive and broad coalition backing within the PL. Party conventions in July and early August formalized Azambuja alongside Contar as the main tickets, narrowing the field among ten registered candidates. Lower probabilities for Vander Loubet, Soraya Thronicke, and remaining contenders align with their single-digit shares in recent data, though the October 4 vote leaves room for shifts from turnout patterns or late campaign developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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