Recent Datafolha polling from mid-August shows a technical tie among four leading candidates for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) at 15%, Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 11%, amid roughly 70% undecided or blank/null responses in spontaneous surveys. This early-campaign environment, following the official start on August 16, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place between Costa and Mendonça Filho as traders weigh aligned chapa dynamics—Arraes and Costa backing João Campos (PSB) for governor versus Mendonça Filho and da Fonte linked to Raquel Lyra (PSD)—alongside historical patterns of late swings in Brazilian Senate races. Further surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in governor preferences could separate the field before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHumberto Costa 36%
Mendonça Filho 34%
Marília Arraes 19.1%
Eduardo da Fonte 9.7%
$13,359 Vol.
$13,359 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
36%
Mendonça Filho
34%
Marília Arraes
19%
Eduardo da Fonte
10%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
1%
Túlio Gadêlha
1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Humberto Costa 36%
Mendonça Filho 34%
Marília Arraes 19.1%
Eduardo da Fonte 9.7%
$13,359 Vol.
$13,359 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
$5,773 Vol.
36%
Mendonça Filho
$3,212 Vol.
34%
Marília Arraes
$1,473 Vol.
19%
Eduardo da Fonte
$384 Vol.
10%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$247 Vol.
1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$315 Vol.
1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$366 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$371 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$329 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$300 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$303 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$287 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Datafolha polling from mid-August shows a technical tie among four leading candidates for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) at 15%, Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 11%, amid roughly 70% undecided or blank/null responses in spontaneous surveys. This early-campaign environment, following the official start on August 16, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place between Costa and Mendonça Filho as traders weigh aligned chapa dynamics—Arraes and Costa backing João Campos (PSB) for governor versus Mendonça Filho and da Fonte linked to Raquel Lyra (PSD)—alongside historical patterns of late swings in Brazilian Senate races. Further surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in governor preferences could separate the field before October voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$13,359End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Datafolha polling from mid-August shows a technical tie among four leading candidates for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) at 15%, Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 11%, amid roughly 70% undecided or blank/null responses in spontaneous surveys. This early-campaign environment, following the official start on August 16, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place between Costa and Mendonça Filho as traders weigh aligned chapa dynamics—Arraes and Costa backing João Campos (PSB) for governor versus Mendonça Filho and da Fonte linked to Raquel Lyra (PSD)—alongside historical patterns of late swings in Brazilian Senate races. Further surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in governor preferences could separate the field before October voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,359End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Datafolha polling from mid-August shows a technical tie among four leading candidates for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) at 15%, Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 11%, amid roughly 70% undecided or blank/null responses in spontaneous surveys. This early-campaign environment, following the official start on August 16, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place between Costa and Mendonça Filho as traders weigh aligned chapa dynamics—Arraes and Costa backing João Campos (PSB) for governor versus Mendonça Filho and da Fonte linked to Raquel Lyra (PSD)—alongside historical patterns of late swings in Brazilian Senate races. Further surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in governor preferences could separate the field before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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