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Politics·Brazil

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

icon for Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner
Politics·Brazil

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

Allyson 67%

Álvaro Dias 15%

Cadu de Lula 11%

Professor Roberio Paulino <1%

Polymarket

$15,965 Vol.

Allyson 67%

Álvaro Dias 15%

Cadu de Lula 11%

Professor Roberio Paulino <1%

Polymarket

$15,965 Vol.

icon for Allyson

Allyson

$5,975 Vol.

67%

icon for Álvaro Dias

Álvaro Dias

$1,412 Vol.

15%

icon for Cadu de Lula

Cadu de Lula

$5,012 Vol.

11%

icon for Professor Roberio Paulino

Professor Roberio Paulino

$684 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rodrigo Bolsonaro

Rodrigo Bolsonaro

$671 Vol.

<1%

icon for Arinalda do MLB

Arinalda do MLB

$513 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Jararaca

Carlos Jararaca

$539 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dário Barbosa

Dário Barbosa

$575 Vol.

<1%

icon for Henrique Lyra

Henrique Lyra

$584 Vol.

<1%

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) holds the leading 66.5% implied probability in the Rio Grande do Norte governor race, ahead of Álvaro Dias (PL) at 14.5% and Cadu Xavier (PT) at 10.5%, with other registered candidates near 0.1%. Recent August polls from institutes such as Difusora/Item, Metadata, and DataVero show Allyson ahead in the first-round scenario with 34–39%, often enough for a potential outright win under valid-vote rules, while earlier July surveys split between him and Cadu. The first-round vote is scheduled for October 4, with a possible runoff on October 25. Allyson benefits from name recognition built as Mossoró mayor, a broad coalition including MDB and PSD, and consistent polling gains into the campaign period that opened August 16. Cadu draws support from the PT base tied to term-limited incumbent Fátima Bezerra but trails in most recent surveys. Álvaro maintains a core PL electorate but has not closed the gap. Traders appear to price the outcome around these polling trends and the narrow window before voting begins.

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,965
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) holds the leading 66.5% implied probability in the Rio Grande do Norte governor race, ahead of Álvaro Dias (PL) at 14.5% and Cadu Xavier (PT) at 10.5%, with other registered candidates near 0.1%. Recent August polls from institutes such as Difusora/Item, Metadata, and DataVero show Allyson ahead in the first-round scenario with 34–39%, often enough for a potential outright win under valid-vote rules, while earlier July surveys split between him and Cadu. The first-round vote is scheduled for October 4, with a possible runoff on October 25. Allyson benefits from name recognition built as Mossoró mayor, a broad coalition including MDB and PSD, and consistent polling gains into the campaign period that opened August 16. Cadu draws support from the PT base tied to term-limited incumbent Fátima Bezerra but trails in most recent surveys. Álvaro maintains a core PL electorate but has not closed the gap. Traders appear to price the outcome around these polling trends and the narrow window before voting begins.

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,965
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Allyson" at 67%, followed by "Álvaro Dias" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner" has generated $16K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner" is "Allyson" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Álvaro Dias" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.