In the Sergipe Senate race for two seats on October 4, 2026, traders see a fragmented contest for second place, with Rogério Carvalho, André Moura, Eduardo Amorim, and Delegado Alessandro clustered at the top of implied probabilities amid broad voter indecision. Recent party conventions formalized 11 candidates, including re-election bids by incumbents Rogério Carvalho (PT) and Alessandro Vieira (MDB), alongside challengers backed by Republicanos, União Brasil, and PL alliances. Multiple July and August polls show the leading names separated by only a few points in first- and second-preference votes, with 20%+ undecided or blank responses reflecting slow consolidation. High undecided levels and the dual-vote format sustain volatility, as modest shifts in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRogerio Carvalho 25%
André Moura 19%
Eduardo Amorim 16%
Delegado Alessandro 14.1%
$16,229 Vol.
$16,229 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rogerio Carvalho
25%
André Moura
20%
Eduardo Amorim
16%
Delegado Alessandro
14%
Delegado André David
14%
Rodrigo Valadares
6%
Renatinha
1%
Coronel Rocha
1%
Edvaldo
1%
Iran Barbosa
<1%
Paulinho da União Tur
<1%
Rogerio Carvalho 25%
André Moura 19%
Eduardo Amorim 16%
Delegado Alessandro 14.1%
$16,229 Vol.
$16,229 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rogerio Carvalho
$4,275 Vol.
25%
André Moura
$1,919 Vol.
20%
Eduardo Amorim
$2,177 Vol.
16%
Delegado Alessandro
$1,225 Vol.
14%
Delegado André David
$1,645 Vol.
14%
Rodrigo Valadares
$1,118 Vol.
6%
Renatinha
$1,053 Vol.
1%
Coronel Rocha
$536 Vol.
1%
Edvaldo
$407 Vol.
1%
Iran Barbosa
$1,190 Vol.
<1%
Paulinho da União Tur
$685 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Sergipe Senate race for two seats on October 4, 2026, traders see a fragmented contest for second place, with Rogério Carvalho, André Moura, Eduardo Amorim, and Delegado Alessandro clustered at the top of implied probabilities amid broad voter indecision. Recent party conventions formalized 11 candidates, including re-election bids by incumbents Rogério Carvalho (PT) and Alessandro Vieira (MDB), alongside challengers backed by Republicanos, União Brasil, and PL alliances. Multiple July and August polls show the leading names separated by only a few points in first- and second-preference votes, with 20%+ undecided or blank responses reflecting slow consolidation. High undecided levels and the dual-vote format sustain volatility, as modest shifts in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ET
Volume
$16,229End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Sergipe Senate race for two seats on October 4, 2026, traders see a fragmented contest for second place, with Rogério Carvalho, André Moura, Eduardo Amorim, and Delegado Alessandro clustered at the top of implied probabilities amid broad voter indecision. Recent party conventions formalized 11 candidates, including re-election bids by incumbents Rogério Carvalho (PT) and Alessandro Vieira (MDB), alongside challengers backed by Republicanos, União Brasil, and PL alliances. Multiple July and August polls show the leading names separated by only a few points in first- and second-preference votes, with 20%+ undecided or blank responses reflecting slow consolidation. High undecided levels and the dual-vote format sustain volatility, as modest shifts in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,229End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the Sergipe Senate race for two seats on October 4, 2026, traders see a fragmented contest for second place, with Rogério Carvalho, André Moura, Eduardo Amorim, and Delegado Alessandro clustered at the top of implied probabilities amid broad voter indecision. Recent party conventions formalized 11 candidates, including re-election bids by incumbents Rogério Carvalho (PT) and Alessandro Vieira (MDB), alongside challengers backed by Republicanos, União Brasil, and PL alliances. Multiple July and August polls show the leading names separated by only a few points in first- and second-preference votes, with 20%+ undecided or blank responses reflecting slow consolidation. High undecided levels and the dual-vote format sustain volatility, as modest shifts in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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