Recent polling from June through mid-August 2026 shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) maintaining a clear lead in Tocantins Senate intentions, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) consistently places second amid broad fragmentation. Multiple surveys register Guimarães in the mid-teens to mid-20s percent range in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Carlos Gaguim (União), Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos), Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Paulo Mourão (PT). Irajá Abreu’s withdrawal narrowed the field of incumbents. Formal candidacies were registered in August ahead of the October 4 vote, which elects the top two finishers. Trader pricing for second place aligns with this pattern of a consolidated second tier and dispersed lower support, leaving room for late shifts from undecided voters or campaign momentum in the remaining weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Guimarães 31%
Eli Borges 9%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 9%
Nilton Santos 4.0%
$12,987 Vol.
$12,987 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
31%
Eli Borges
9%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
9%
Nilton Santos
4%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
3%
Paulo Mourão
3%
Ronaldo Dimas
3%
Osvany Luz
2%
Professor Osvaldo
2%
Fábio Ribeiro
2%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
2%
Eduardo Gomes
2%
Gaguim
31%
Alexandre Guimarães 31%
Eli Borges 9%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 9%
Nilton Santos 4.0%
$12,987 Vol.
$12,987 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
$7,007 Vol.
31%
Eli Borges
$326 Vol.
9%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$313 Vol.
9%
Nilton Santos
$273 Vol.
4%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$257 Vol.
3%
Paulo Mourão
$3,023 Vol.
3%
Ronaldo Dimas
$262 Vol.
3%
Osvany Luz
$305 Vol.
2%
Professor Osvaldo
$221 Vol.
2%
Fábio Ribeiro
$228 Vol.
2%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$203 Vol.
2%
Eduardo Gomes
$256 Vol.
2%
Gaguim
$312 Vol.
31%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from June through mid-August 2026 shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) maintaining a clear lead in Tocantins Senate intentions, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) consistently places second amid broad fragmentation. Multiple surveys register Guimarães in the mid-teens to mid-20s percent range in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Carlos Gaguim (União), Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos), Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Paulo Mourão (PT). Irajá Abreu’s withdrawal narrowed the field of incumbents. Formal candidacies were registered in August ahead of the October 4 vote, which elects the top two finishers. Trader pricing for second place aligns with this pattern of a consolidated second tier and dispersed lower support, leaving room for late shifts from undecided voters or campaign momentum in the remaining weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$12,987End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from June through mid-August 2026 shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) maintaining a clear lead in Tocantins Senate intentions, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) consistently places second amid broad fragmentation. Multiple surveys register Guimarães in the mid-teens to mid-20s percent range in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Carlos Gaguim (União), Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos), Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Paulo Mourão (PT). Irajá Abreu’s withdrawal narrowed the field of incumbents. Formal candidacies were registered in August ahead of the October 4 vote, which elects the top two finishers. Trader pricing for second place aligns with this pattern of a consolidated second tier and dispersed lower support, leaving room for late shifts from undecided voters or campaign momentum in the remaining weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,987End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from June through mid-August 2026 shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) maintaining a clear lead in Tocantins Senate intentions, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) consistently places second amid broad fragmentation. Multiple surveys register Guimarães in the mid-teens to mid-20s percent range in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Carlos Gaguim (União), Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos), Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Paulo Mourão (PT). Irajá Abreu’s withdrawal narrowed the field of incumbents. Formal candidacies were registered in August ahead of the October 4 vote, which elects the top two finishers. Trader pricing for second place aligns with this pattern of a consolidated second tier and dispersed lower support, leaving room for late shifts from undecided voters or campaign momentum in the remaining weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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