Multiple heatwaves and sustained warmth have driven UK summer mean temperatures to 16.48°C through mid-August 2026—well above the 16.12°C record set in 2025—with June and July ranking among the warmest on record and August adding further extremes including a 38.1°C peak. Persistent high pressure, record numbers of days above 30°C and 35°C, and elevated overnight minima have produced this anomaly, consistent with long-term warming trends that make such seasons more frequent. Met Office analysis indicates only near- or slightly below-average conditions are now needed through the final week of August to establish a new seasonal record, aligning with the elevated market-implied probability for a new high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
89% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
89% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Multiple heatwaves and sustained warmth have driven UK summer mean temperatures to 16.48°C through mid-August 2026—well above the 16.12°C record set in 2025—with June and July ranking among the warmest on record and August adding further extremes including a 38.1°C peak. Persistent high pressure, record numbers of days above 30°C and 35°C, and elevated overnight minima have produced this anomaly, consistent with long-term warming trends that make such seasons more frequent. Met Office analysis indicates only near- or slightly below-average conditions are now needed through the final week of August to establish a new seasonal record, aligning with the elevated market-implied probability for a new high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$948End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Multiple heatwaves and sustained warmth have driven UK summer mean temperatures to 16.48°C through mid-August 2026—well above the 16.12°C record set in 2025—with June and July ranking among the warmest on record and August adding further extremes including a 38.1°C peak. Persistent high pressure, record numbers of days above 30°C and 35°C, and elevated overnight minima have produced this anomaly, consistent with long-term warming trends that make such seasons more frequent. Met Office analysis indicates only near- or slightly below-average conditions are now needed through the final week of August to establish a new seasonal record, aligning with the elevated market-implied probability for a new high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$948End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Multiple heatwaves and sustained warmth have driven UK summer mean temperatures to 16.48°C through mid-August 2026—well above the 16.12°C record set in 2025—with June and July ranking among the warmest on record and August adding further extremes including a 38.1°C peak. Persistent high pressure, record numbers of days above 30°C and 35°C, and elevated overnight minima have produced this anomaly, consistent with long-term warming trends that make such seasons more frequent. Met Office analysis indicates only near- or slightly below-average conditions are now needed through the final week of August to establish a new seasonal record, aligning with the elevated market-implied probability for a new high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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