The race for second place in Alagoas' October 2026 Senate election stays closely contested between Arthur Lira and Renan Calheiros after Alfredo Gaspar's early August withdrawal from the contest. Gaspar had led or tied in prior polling, and his exit to join another ticket has prompted voter realignment discussions that keep the two frontrunners within a narrow band in trader assessments. Both draw on established party networks, legislative records, and state-level coalitions, while trailing names such as Marina JHC and Davi Davino Filho register minimal support. Any further endorsements, regional turnout shifts, or coalition announcements before election day could widen the gap reflected in current probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Lira 46%
Renan 37%
Marina JHC 5%
Davi Davino Filho 2.1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
46%
Renan
37%
Marina JHC
5%
Davi Davino Filho
2%
Alexandre Fleming
1%
Mariedson
<1%
Dr. Wanderley
<1%
Arthur Lira 46%
Renan 37%
Marina JHC 5%
Davi Davino Filho 2.1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
$3,179 Vol.
46%
Renan
$3,392 Vol.
37%
Marina JHC
$516 Vol.
5%
Davi Davino Filho
$430 Vol.
2%
Alexandre Fleming
$410 Vol.
1%
Mariedson
$463 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Wanderley
$426 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The race for second place in Alagoas' October 2026 Senate election stays closely contested between Arthur Lira and Renan Calheiros after Alfredo Gaspar's early August withdrawal from the contest. Gaspar had led or tied in prior polling, and his exit to join another ticket has prompted voter realignment discussions that keep the two frontrunners within a narrow band in trader assessments. Both draw on established party networks, legislative records, and state-level coalitions, while trailing names such as Marina JHC and Davi Davino Filho register minimal support. Any further endorsements, regional turnout shifts, or coalition announcements before election day could widen the gap reflected in current probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$8,816End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The race for second place in Alagoas' October 2026 Senate election stays closely contested between Arthur Lira and Renan Calheiros after Alfredo Gaspar's early August withdrawal from the contest. Gaspar had led or tied in prior polling, and his exit to join another ticket has prompted voter realignment discussions that keep the two frontrunners within a narrow band in trader assessments. Both draw on established party networks, legislative records, and state-level coalitions, while trailing names such as Marina JHC and Davi Davino Filho register minimal support. Any further endorsements, regional turnout shifts, or coalition announcements before election day could widen the gap reflected in current probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,816End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The race for second place in Alagoas' October 2026 Senate election stays closely contested between Arthur Lira and Renan Calheiros after Alfredo Gaspar's early August withdrawal from the contest. Gaspar had led or tied in prior polling, and his exit to join another ticket has prompted voter realignment discussions that keep the two frontrunners within a narrow band in trader assessments. Both draw on established party networks, legislative records, and state-level coalitions, while trailing names such as Marina JHC and Davi Davino Filho register minimal support. Any further endorsements, regional turnout shifts, or coalition announcements before election day could widen the gap reflected in current probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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