Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race in multiple July and August polls, with shares ranging from 22% to 44.6% in scenarios where voters select two candidates, ahead of running mate Jaques Wagner (PT) at 16-36%. This positioning stems from Costa’s prior two terms as governor, recent role as Casa Civil minister, and strong PT base in the state ahead of the October 4 election for two seats. Wagner’s support has softened amid prior investigations, while opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in single digits to low twenties. Trader pricing for first place aligns with these trends and the PT convention’s formalization of the dual candidacy, though late shifts in turnout or alliances remain possible before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 72%
Jaques Wagner 11.2%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Gregorio Gould <1%
$12,760 Vol.
$12,760 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
72%
Jaques Wagner
11%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Angelo Coronel
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 72%
Jaques Wagner 11.2%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Gregorio Gould <1%
$12,760 Vol.
$12,760 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$4,437 Vol.
72%
Jaques Wagner
$2,833 Vol.
11%
Carlos Sodré
$763 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$556 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Angelo Coronel
$452 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$899 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$730 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$715 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$746 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race in multiple July and August polls, with shares ranging from 22% to 44.6% in scenarios where voters select two candidates, ahead of running mate Jaques Wagner (PT) at 16-36%. This positioning stems from Costa’s prior two terms as governor, recent role as Casa Civil minister, and strong PT base in the state ahead of the October 4 election for two seats. Wagner’s support has softened amid prior investigations, while opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in single digits to low twenties. Trader pricing for first place aligns with these trends and the PT convention’s formalization of the dual candidacy, though late shifts in turnout or alliances remain possible before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$12,760End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race in multiple July and August polls, with shares ranging from 22% to 44.6% in scenarios where voters select two candidates, ahead of running mate Jaques Wagner (PT) at 16-36%. This positioning stems from Costa’s prior two terms as governor, recent role as Casa Civil minister, and strong PT base in the state ahead of the October 4 election for two seats. Wagner’s support has softened amid prior investigations, while opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in single digits to low twenties. Trader pricing for first place aligns with these trends and the PT convention’s formalization of the dual candidacy, though late shifts in turnout or alliances remain possible before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,760End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race in multiple July and August polls, with shares ranging from 22% to 44.6% in scenarios where voters select two candidates, ahead of running mate Jaques Wagner (PT) at 16-36%. This positioning stems from Costa’s prior two terms as governor, recent role as Casa Civil minister, and strong PT base in the state ahead of the October 4 election for two seats. Wagner’s support has softened amid prior investigations, while opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in single digits to low twenties. Trader pricing for first place aligns with these trends and the PT convention’s formalization of the dual candidacy, though late shifts in turnout or alliances remain possible before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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